Locks
NCAA Basketball – Indiana @ Illinois -6 (-110):
I’ll say it again: this Illinois team is a legit Final Four contender. As we mentioned on my podcast, the Illini started out down 15 at Penn St and ended up winning by 17; that’s a dominant basketball team. Indiana has been able to play well against teams that don’t score, but we’ve seen the Illinois offense firing on all cylinders averaging 92.6 PPG in their last three games.
The Hoosiers have a smaller lineup, similar to Penn State’s size, and will struggle to contain Kofi Cockburn inside along with the size and speed of Ayo Dosunmu. I think Illinois will out-shoot and out-rebound another opponent on their way to another double-digit win. The early action on this number agrees, so grab it before there’s too much steam.
NFL – Dolphins -3 (-110):
The Miami Dolphins absolutely need to win this game in order to stay in playoff contention and they’ve been playing some good football all year, especially on defense. This Miami defense is allowing only 18 PPG so if they get anything from Tua Tagovailoa they should be able to handle a Las Vegas Raiders team that no longer has anything to play for.
The Raiders have one win since Week 10 and it was a Hail Mary against the New York Jets so yikes… And to add to the trouble in Vegas, Derek Carr is still dealing with a groin injury and is questionable so that is something to keep an eye on but I’m rolling with Miami either way.
NBA – Wolves/Jazz Over 226 (-110):
I’m pulling the volatile NBA out of the degenerates and giving it another chance after a big day yesterday. The Utah Jazz are a capable team, putting up 120 in their first game with a pick-and-roll heavy Donovan Mitchell working alongside Rudy Gobert. Being a Minnesotan, I know just how bad this Wolves defense is as well as how fast pace and capable this young offense is.
Malik Beasley, Karl-Anthony Towns, D’Angelo Russell and Co. can put up points in a hurry but none are known for their defensive presence. I expect a fast-paced game in which the Wolves should keep competitive so I’m rolling with the over today.
Degenerates
NCAA Basketball – Virginia/Gonzaga Over 139.5 (-110):
It’s tough to bet an over when Virginia is involved because they play at one of the slowest paces in the country and are elite defensively. They actually shoot it well, with the 36th best field goal percentage nationally. The key to Virginia’s pack-line defense is executing it in the half-court.
But Gonzaga is so incredible at pushing the pace, 6th fastest nationally, that I think they’ll try to score as much as possible in transition to keep Virginia from setting up on defense. At some point, Virginia will have to speed up on offense to counter, and their effective shooting should be enough to get this over a pretty moderate total.
NCAA Football – Western Kentucky/Georgia St Over 50 (-110):
I’m in agreement with the opening of this total at 55.5 and see this as a number with lots of value. Western Kentucky was pretty miserable for most of the season, especially on offense, but seem to have figured some things out in their last two games averaging 37.5 points.
I think that can continue against a Georgia State team that allows a ton of yards, especially through the air, and give up almost 33 PPG. The Panthers also have the best dual-threat QB in the Sun Belt with Cornelious Brown IV and also score almost 33 PPG. They’re 7-2 over to this total during the season, and in beautiful Gulf Coast weather, I’m expecting plenty of points in a game where the total has just moved too far.
Tiny Nick is 78-33 (+43.7 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining, but riskier picks.
