Locks
NCAA Basketball – Drake -3 @ Indiana St. (-110):
I’m pretty high on St. Louis, but a similarly-styled Drake squad might be my favorite Midwestern darkhorse right now. They just keep rolling teams, and while this is their first conference road test, I like this short number. Interestingly, Indiana St. was blown out by that St. Louis team, showing their inability to shoot or defend anyone who can space the floor.
Drake just can’t miss right now, shooting 55% or higher in three of their last four games. I think the Bulldogs make a statement to open Missouri Valley play and this number is a cheap place to buy on a really good team. As long as Drake doesn’t go ice cold from three today, they should win this one relatively comfortably.
NFL – 2-Team 6-Point Teaser; Browns -0.5, Ravens -3 (-110):
The Cleveland Browns will have to do it without their receiving group who for the most part will be out due to COVID protocol. This brought the Browns spread from 10 points to 6.5 and that was enough for me to make a move. It might not be easy for this offense today but Cleveland needs a win and against the lowly New York Jets who somehow won a game. I think they should handle business.
As for the Baltimore Ravens, they are taking on a New York Giants team that has been on a nosedive lately. The key number on this one is 3 but even if this sneaks up to -4, I still like it. Lamar Jackson and the Ravens need a big game today and I think they’re going to get it.
NFL – 2-Team 7-Point Teaser; Bears -2, Chiefs -3 (-130):
After what I saw last night in the Miami Dolphins game, I’m just not super comfortable taking pub favs across the board today so instead, I’m going to focus on teasing against the teams that should be motivated to lose or at least not to win. The Chicago Bears are taking on the leader of the Trevor Lawrence Sweepstakes and I don’t think they’re going to mess this up. Mitch Tribisky has been moving the ball lately and that should be enough to get it done against a team that is literally not trying to win a football game.
As for the Kansas City Chiefs, this one was more about how I think Patrick Mahomes is the coolest person to watch and I needed something on him to feel good. If you tease this down to the key number of 3, we should be confident in at least a push and most likely an easy cover against a banged up Atlanta Falcons team.
Degenerates
NFL – Colts +2 (-110):
The Pittsburgh Steelers are struggling right now — like really struggling. Meanwhile, the Indianapolis Colts are getting hot at just the right time and as JuJu Smith-Schuster has recently found out, dancing is only fun when you win. I don’t think the Steelers are dead just yet but unless they put it all together today, Philip Rivers and Co. should be able to handle business.
This Pittsburgh team has not been the same since Bud Dupree left with an ACL injury. The reason I put this game in the degenerates category is that the Steelers can see the Browns and even the Ravens in their rear views mirror, and with the Buffalo Bills already leaping them they should have a crazy sense of urgency today to play this game like a playoff game… but so should the Colts. This one should be fun.
Tiny Nick is 80-34 (+44.6 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining, but riskier picks.
