Locks
NCAA Basketball – Drake (-4) @ Indiana State (-110):
A scheduling quirk of the Missouri Valley and a few other conferences this year is creating these back-to-back games in one location to reduce travel. Therefore we get the sequel to yesterday’s 81-63 Drake victory. What’s amazing is not only did we just have this game, but we essentially had this exact point spread too.
I think this line is a reaction to what we’ve seen with rematch games so far this year, where the team that lost the first game significantly overperforms in the second. But Indiana State is outmatched here as we saw yesterday. They’re just not good enough on the offensive end to keep up with the sharpshooters from Drake, despite a huge free-throw advantage. Both teams played about on par with their season metrics, and I don’t see any reason that would change here. Drake should win another comfortable one.
NFL – Bills -6.5 vs. Patriots (-110):
The Buffalo Bills are rolling right now and the Pats just are not. Cam Newton has had an awful season to be honest and Josh Allen has come on strong as one of the best young quarterbacks in the league. I expect those trends to continue for Buffalo today against the Patriots team that has been dead for a couple of weeks. If this spread moves over 7, I would skip it or move it to the degenerates but it’s sitting at 6.5 for now and that should be a lock.
NCAA Basketball – Michigan State/Minnesota Over 153 (-110):
I think this total opened at 160.5 for a reason, and the fact that it’s come down to this spot makes it a good play for me. These teams combine for a record of 12-5 to the over this season, with the Gophers going over in their last five games. Both teams can really score, but it’s the struggles on defense for Michigan State that seals this one for me.
Their past three opponents have all shot 50% or better from the field, causing the Spartans to allow 85 PPG over that stretch. That’s unheard of for a Tom Izzo team that should have defense as one of their strong suits. The Gophers also take and make the most free throws in the country, and both teams commit a lot of fouls which helps get totals over the number. I think this is a game played in the 80s so I’m jumping at the buy-low opportunity against the steam.
Degenerates
No Degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 81-35 (+44.5 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining, but riskier picks.
