Locks
NCAA Basketball – Boise State -21 @ San Jose State (-110):
Hopefully, the San Jose State football team can continue its undefeated season today because their basketball program is just atrocious. Throw out their 2-point loss to Cal Poly, and the Spartans have lost to respectable D1 opponents this season by an average of 37.6 points. Out of 336 D1 programs, their 35% shooting puts them at 332nd, which is unlikely to improve much against Boise State’s field goal percentage defense, which is 21st in the country.
The Broncos have quietly been playing great basketball, with a 10-point loss at Houston as the only blemish on their record. Their starting five combined to shoot 50% from the floor and should fill it up against this Spartans defense that allows 88 PPG. This is a lot of points, but I have to take a hot-shooting team against one of the worst programs in the country.
NCAA Basketball – Colorado @ USC -2 (-110):
If this USC team puts it all together, they could be really good in what looks like a down year for the Pac-12. I absolutely love the Mobley brothers inside, who are currently combining for 17.5 rebounds per game including 6.7 offensive boards, making the Trojans the 17th best rebounding team in the country in addition to being 11th in blocked shots.
Compare that to a Colorado team that checks in at 171st in rebounding and 220th in blocks despite giving a lot of minutes to their forwards. I think the Mobley Towers will have a dominant performance down low in this game, and if USC can continue its trend of getting quality interior shots, the Trojans should win this easily. Colorado is just 1-3 ATS on the road this season so roll with the home favorite who has covered their last three at home by double digits.
Degenerates
NCAA Basketball – Minnesota +8.5 @ Wisconsin (-110):
Okay Gopher fans, here’s the test: Beating an ice-cold Michigan State team is one thing, it’s a whole other thing to do it on the road against a top team in the Big Ten. There’s definitely a concern that this will be a bounce-back spot for Wisconsin combined with a letdown for Minnesota, but this is too many points when the Gophers have surprisingly been the more consistent team.
Minnesota cannot allow D’Mitrik Trice to continue his torrid pace (54 points in the past two games) while simultaneously hoping Nate Reuvers and Micah Potter stay in their slump. But with Marcus Carr on fire, the Gophers have shown they aren’t out of any game right now. Catching this many points leaves a pretty wide open back door as well against a Badger team that is only 3-4-1 ATS as a home favorite.
NCAA Basketball – Michigan -1 @ Maryland (-110):
This game opened as Maryland being a 1-point favorite, but enough money came in on Michigan as a short road dog that it flipped overnight. That overnight move through zero tells you where the sharp money is, and I would agree. Maryland is just in a tough spot here, fresh off Monday’s improbable road win over Wisconsin and due for a letdown.
They’re facing a Wolverines team who shoots it better than them from every part of the floor, rebounds better, assists better, and blocks shots better. Michigan has quietly been playing really good basketball behind the scoring of Isaiah Livers and the interior presence of 7’1” freshman Hunter Dickinson, who looks like a star in the making. This is more of a feel play for me given the spot for both teams, and seeing sharp money on the same side seals it for me.
Tiny Nick is 84-37 ATS (+46.3 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining, but riskier picks.
