Locks
NCAA Basketball – Creighton @ Kansas -3.5 (-110):
Pay no attention to the struggles Kansas had against North Dakota St in a game that was a look-ahead spot to this big matchup. That’s also a good Bison team that I recommend paying attention to in conference play. I’m going with the Jayhawks here because I think it’s a bad matchup for how this Creighton team is playing right now.
The Bluejays are a jump-shooting team in a shooting slump, only making 32% from behind the arc, and going against an elite defensive team in Kansas that averages eight steals and four blocks a game. Creighton also hasn’t played anyone, whereas Kansas has been tested this year in games against Gonzaga and Kentucky. I expect Bill Self to go with his perimeter-heavy lineup here to contain the Creighton shooters, while positionless wonder Jalen Wilson continues to get to the rim and create foul trouble for a thin Bluejays lineup. It should be a good game, but KU grinds out a win by high single-digits, so lay the short number here.
NCAA Basketball – North Carolina @ Iowa -3 (-110):
Since it’s North Carolina and the ACC, I think we’re seeing brand name recognition determine the market and provide a buy-low opportunity on Iowa. We’ve seen Carolina struggle to score this season, particularly from the perimeter shooting only 27% from 3, which has led to lengthy droughts. Just one of those lulls against this explosive Iowa offense can put the Heels in too big of a hole.
I think Luka Garza and Jack Nunge can do just enough inside to match the UNC frontcourt (which comes into this game with Garrison Brooks nursing an ankle injury) and let the backcourt mismatch take over to give Iowa the win. I also look at a big free throw shooting percentage disparity giving Iowa another big edge and the ability to close out the game if it’s tight. Iowa is the best team from the best conference, so this is a nice short number to lay, especially given the vast difference between these offenses.
NCAA Basketball – Oral Roberts @ Oklahoma St -15.5 (-110):
Oklahoma State just keeps getting better and better as projected No. 1 pick Cade Cunningham continues to figure out the speed and style of college games. He’s doing it all for the Cowboys right now, leading them in scoring, assists and steals, plus he’s 3rd in rebounding. The combination of him and Isaac Likekele creates the size, speed, and athleticism that most teams can’t match up with in the backcourt.
Oral Roberts will especially struggle with Cunningham and Likekele, as they were blown out by 27 against a Missouri team that also brings that kind of athleticism and pace. The Cowboys had a flat spot in the first half against Oakland after their big win at Marquette, but I expect the firepower they showed in the second half to be there this whole game as they roll by 20 or more.
NCAA Basketball – Central Arkansas @ St. Louis -21 (-110):
I was on this talented St. Louis team the other day against Pine Bluff, and they covered that 33 point spread with 20 to spare so I’m going back to the well with them. Pine Bluff doesn’t like to play much defense, and neither does this Central Arkansas team, allowing over 85 PPG to nobody special including Little Rock.
After hanging 107 last game, St. Louis is now averaging almost 94 PPG. But it’s not just against the D1 doormats, they put 85 on LSU and are now the No. 4 team in the country in adjusted field goal percentage. I’m telling you, this Billikens team is for real, and Javonte Perkins should be getting national attention for how dynamic he is on offense, shooting an incredible 61.5% from the field. This looks like a really good spot to continue buying low on them until the market and everyone else catches on.
Degenerates
NCAA Basketball – Northern Kentucky (+12) @ Dayton (-110):
It really looks like Dayton is struggling to figure out life without Obi Toppin, and I expected a team that still has Jalen Crutcher to play better than they have. A close loss to SMU is not bad, but squeaking past a really poor Eastern Illinois team by three is cause for concern. The Flyers are trying to grind games down right now and win ugly while they find their offensive identity.
For that reason in particular they should not be laying double digits against very many opponents, and I think this Northern Kentucky team can keep it close. Their strength is rebounding, and if they can keep that up in this game it should further limit the weak Dayton offense. The market agrees as this line opened 13.5 and immediately moved toward the Norse, so be careful of this running all the way to single digits where I expect the final margin to be.
Tiny Nick is 42-21 (+18.9 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining, but riskier picks.
