If you’re still giddy after the Minnesota Vikings’ victory over the Green Bay Packers, who can blame you? The 28-22 score doesn’t even begin to tell you how dominant Minnesota was, right? After all, there’s nothing better than a victory in Wisconsin.
So what’s not to like?
Well…a few things come to mind, and it starts with four underperforming players:
Ifeadi Odenigbo
Odenigbo was supposed to have a breakout season in 2020. After accumulating seven sacks in 2019 in a part-time role, those numbers were thought to only go higher if he saw more snaps as a starter. Through seven games, the opposite has happened. Odenigbo has just 2.5 sacks on the season despite playing in 71% of the defensive snaps. He has come on a bit as of late, but the guy we saw in a situational role who would make at least one big play a game has been very quiet so far.
Odenigbo is on pace for 5.5 sacks this season, which would be 1.5 less than his 7 last year — and his snap count has almost already matched what it was in 2019. So either this cat isn’t built to be a starter, is just better coming in on a situational basis or is just having a slow start to the season.
Whatever the case, Odenigbo is on pace to take a step backward when many figured he’d have a breakout year.
Holton Hill
Hill has been one of the bigger disappointments for the Vikings this season. He was supposed to be one of the veteran leaders of the Vikings’ cornerbacks, and while he is in his third year, it hasn’t shown at all this season. He has struggled mightily all year long and has been outclassed by receivers like Davante Adams, giving huge cushions to just about any other receiver that is in his stratosphere.
Hill has also been injured. He has been hurt since the Houston Texans game and doesn’t appear to be close to seeing the field anytime soon. In his absence, players like Jeff Gladney, Cameron Dantzler and even Harrison Hand have gained experience. Hill hasn’t done enough to just be handed his job back, and he could find himself far down the depth chart upon his return.
From a tackling perspective, Hill could have his best season if he’s able to get back to a starting role — he already has 24 on the season, which puts him 12 behind his best mark. While that’s all fine and dandy, the stat that clearly demonstrates his regression is the passer rating allowed when targeted. Hill was at 67.0 as a rookie, and that mark has jumped to 101.9 this season.
If Hill doesn’t get back on the field soon or continues to have issues when he does, his descent down the corner depth chart will continue. It could get to the point where he heads into the 2021 season battling to keep his job on the team.
Irv Smith Jr.
Smith has been a big disappointment this season. The tight end was supposed to be a focal point of the offense. With Stefon Diggs now in Buffalo, many assumed Gary Kubiak would utilize his speed and athletic ability to create ways to get him open on the field. For whatever the reason, that hasn’t happened this season.
Part of the reason may be due to Justin Jefferson‘s emergence, but Kirk Cousins‘ play and decision making also are a factor. Cousins locked on to Adam Thielen early in the season, forcing a ton of balls his way. Then he began heavily targeting Jefferson and was finding success. Smith only seems to get the leftover scraps from those two, and he is rarely the No. 1 option on a given play.
He has just 11 receptions on 17 targets this season: That’s an average of about 1.5 catches a game, and it would put him at 25 for the season. That would be 11 less than his rookie campaign, and it would be a step backward in production when many had him pegged for a breakout sophomore season. Smith also has regressed as a blocker and gets called for plenty of holding and offensive pass interference penalties. He clearly needs to work on his technique, and perhaps his route running, if he’s going to make a late push and surpass the numbers he put up in Year 1.
Kirk Cousins
Cousins hasn’t been himself this season. Early in the year, he locked onto Thielen way too much and routinely forced the ball into double-coverage. He’s also suffered momentary mental lapses where he fumbles the football or throws costly interceptions. Speaking of interceptions, the Vikings’ quarterback already has 10 on the year and only had six in 2019.
Cousins may not look like he’s taking a step backward. He’s actually on pace to have about 100 more passing yards and throw for one more touchdown than he did in 2019. But he’s worse in the categories that make or break games. Cousins is projected to go from six interceptions last year to 23 this season, and from taking 28 sacks to 34. Lastly, his completion percentage is at 65.6 at almost the halfway point of the season, which is the lowest in his Vikings career by almost five percentage points.
No one predicted that Cousins would regress as much as he has this season. Perhaps it’s all the hits he’s taken playing behind the Vikings’ offensive line for the last three years catching up with him, or maybe he and Kubiak just aren’t on the same page. Whatever the reason, Cousins isn’t the same productive and smart passer the Vikings had under center in 2019.
