The dynamic of the Minnesota Vikings’ offseason changed on Monday night when they shipped disgruntled wide receiver Stefon Diggs to the Buffalo Bills. While it was tough saying goodbye to one of the most dynamic receivers in the NFL — at least for some fans — it also brought a slew of draft picks.
In the wake of the trade, two of the Vikings’ 12 selections in the 2020 NFL Draft will occur in the first round as they added the Bills’ first-rounder (22nd overall) to the selection they already owned (25th overall). However, getting a handful of magic beans isn’t useful if one of them doesn’t produce a beanstalk.
Since Spielman took over as the Vikings general manager entering the 2012 season, his track record of first-round picks has been hit or miss. That begs the question of whether Spielman’s draft capital is a good thing entering the draft or if it’s another chance to find the next Laquon Treadwell.
2012: LT Matt Kalil (fourth overall), S Harrison Smith (29th overall)
The draft that kicked off the Spielman era started with a bang as Spielman fleeced the Cleveland Browns out of a fourth-, fifth- and seventh-round selection to move down one spot. Unfortunately, Kalil didn’t live up to his part of the bargain. The USC product put together a Pro Bowl season in his rookie career but never improved in large part to a series of knee injuries.
On the other hand, the other trade the Vikings pulled off in the first round was a game-changer. After sending their original fourth-round pick to the Broncos to trade up six spots, they selected Smith who instantly transformed the Vikings defense, giving them a playmaker on the back end. With an eight-year career that includes 23 interceptions (seventh in franchise history), Smith is a lock for the ring of honor and a hall of fame candidate down the road.
HIT OR MISS: KALIL (MISS), SMITH (HIT)
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2013: DT Sharrif Floyd (23rd overall), CB Xavier Rhodes (25th overall), WR Cordarrelle Patterson (29th overall)
The trade to land Smith was just the beginning for Spielman as he proceeded to go wild in his second draft. With the Vikings sitting at 23rd overall, they pounced on Floyd after watching him tumble down the board. The early returns looked good as Floyd collected 9 1/2 sacks in his first three seasons, but a bungled surgery affected his quadriceps and his career fizzled out after four years.
The Vikings hit gold on the next pick, landing Rhodes with the selection acquired in the Percy Harvin trade. Although his time in Minnesota ended on a sour note, Rhodes developed into one of the top corners in the league and was an All-Pro selection in 2017.
But “Trader Rick” got burned at the end of the night, surrendering four selections to trade up and acquire Patterson. With freakish athletic ability for his 6’2″, 238-pound frame, Patterson had the upside to be a weapon similar to what Harvin was in Minnesota. Instead, Norv Turner insisted on making Patterson a by-the-book receiver and things never panned out.
HIT OR MISS: FLOYD (MISS), RHODES (HIT), PATTERSON (MISS)
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2014: LB Anthony Barr (ninth overall), QB Teddy Bridgewater (32nd overall)
As the Christian Ponder era ended for the Vikings, they entered the draft searching for their next franchise quarterback. While many clamored for Johnny Manziel, Spielman opted for a more conservative approach to start, trading back from the eighth selection to select a project in Barr.
Despite just learning the linebacker position in his sophomore year at UCLA, Barr became a pillar of Mike Zimmer’s defense. While the numbers don’t scream impact player, Barr is a jack-of-all-trades type who has the ability to cover, rush the passer and tackle. While the Vikings could have selected Aaron Donald with this pick, they had just invested in Linval Joseph in free agency and with Barr becoming a solid NFL starter, the Vikings hit but didn’t make out as well as they could have.
The quarterback came later as the Vikings stunned everyone by trading up with the Baltimore Ravens to select Bridgewater. The jury seems to be out on whether Bridgewater would have become the franchise signal-caller the Vikings have needed since Fran Tarkenton retired. It’s also fair to question how different Spielman’s tenure would be if Bridgewater never got hurt.
HIT OR MISS: BARR (HIT), BRIDGEWATER (MISS)
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2015: CB Trae Waynes (11th overall)
For the first time in Spielman’s tenure, he decided to sit tight and wait for his turn during this draft. How you view the selection of Waynes depends on how you view the rest of the draft.
Armed with speed and size, the Vikings selected Waynes 11th overall but had other intriguing options. The biggest name was Marcus Peters, who was passed over thanks to issues that led to his dismissal at the University of Washington. Peters hasn’t been as clean off the field as Waynes has during his career, but had more of a playmaker mentality with 27 career interceptions compared to Waynes’ seven.
Again, it depends on how you view a hit. If you count it as getting the optimal player in said situation, it’s a miss. But since Waynes has been a fixture over the past five seasons, there could have been worse outcomes.
HIT OR MISS: HIT
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2016: WR Laquon Treadwell (23rd overall)
Sometimes a draft selection can come out of groupthink. Many believed that Treadwell — one of the top receiver prospects in the draft — tumbled down the board due to the over analyzation that occurs between the NFL Combine and the NFL Draft.
With Treadwell not taking part at the combine, he settled for a 4.63-second 40-yard dash at his pro day, which raised eyebrows about his ability to separate. As more athletic prospects Corey Coleman, Will Fuller and Josh Doctson were taken off the board, the Vikings took Treadwell thinking he would gain some of that speed back as he was further removed from a gruesome leg injury in his sophomore season at Ole Miss.
Instead, Treadwell recorded just one catch in his rookie season and things never got much better. With a slew of mental mistakes underlining his line of 65 catches, 701 yards and two touchdowns, his time in Minnesota has been a disaster. To add insult to injury, Michael Thomas went 24 picks later.
HIT OR MISS: MISS
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2018: CB Mike Hughes (30th overall)
Getting into the more recent first-round picks, it’s hard to make a more accurate assessment considering there’s still room for improvement. With Hughes, the Vikings have more questions than they do answers.
Hughes had a solid rookie season until he suffered a multi-ligament knee injury in October of 2018. While he was able to come back and show signs of getting it, he also struggled mightily at times, raising questions about his long-term future in Zimmer’s defense.
An optimist’s take would say that most cornerbacks have needed time to grasp Zimmer’s defense and the best could be yet to come. The pessimist sees that Lamar Jackson was taken two picks later and wonders how good he would look in Zimmer’s run-first offense.
HIT OR MISS: Incomplete
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2019: C Garrett Bradbury (18th overall)
It’s interesting to note that for all the offensive line problems that the Vikings have had during Spielman’s tenure, he’s only used a first-round pick on an offensive lineman twice. In both instances, both Kalil and Bradbury figured to be pillars in the trenches, but haven’t lived up to expectations.
Bradbury’s rookie season was a mixed bag. At times, he looked like a mauler in the run game who could get out in open space. At others, he was overwhelmed by strength in the trenches, leading to a pair of 0.0 pass-blocking grades from Pro Football Focus.
It’s possible that some upgrades at the guard positions could help Bradbury in the future, but he’ll need to step up this fall.
HIT OR MISS: Incomplete
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In seven seasons, Spielman has made 11 first-round picks and has hit on four of them with judgment to be passed on his most recent two. Some of those hits can be considered questionable, but a 44 percent (4-of-9) hit rate in the first round has to be considered a success.
You could also mix in Spielman burning his 2017 first-rounder for Sam Bradford, but we’ll leave that up to you.
Overall, Spielman has done a solid job building the roster. With a pair of first-rounders to play with, there’s a chance he can at least land one long-term player in a loaded class.
