Dalvin Cook is a special running back. This isn’t something we just found out in the 2019 season.
Some recognized Cook’s talent during his days at Florida State while he was speeding past hopeless defenders along the sideline for long touchdown runs.
Others picked up on Cook’s game-breaking abilities during the first four weeks of his professional career, when he showed glimpses of greatness prior to a devastating torn ACL abruptly ended a promising rookie campaign.
Anyone who watched Cook knows that his superb 2019 performance isn’t out of the ordinary.
Minnesota’s rushing attack was among the best in the NFL in 2019. Cook was responsible for most of that production, totaling 1,135 rushing yards at 4.5 yards per carry and 13 rushing touchdowns.
Head coach Mike Zimmer has made it clear that he wants his teams to run the football, and run it well. Cook led the charge in that regard for the Vikings. Additionally, Cook ran for nearly 100 yards and a pair of touchdowns in Minnesota’s monster playoff win at New Orleans.
With all of that said, it’s not surprising to see Cook’s name circulated as a candidate for a contract extension this offseason. The star running back’s current contract runs through the 2020 season. He appears poised to cash in prior to 2021.
Cook’s talent and big-play ability are well-documented. But what many people don’t consider is the value of the running back position, or lack thereof.
The position was once considered the most valuable in football.
However, the league has swiftly become more pass-oriented and the running back position has evolved with that. Fewer and fewer running backs are asked to carry the ball 20 times in a game. Many running backs are asked to catch the ball more than they’re asked to take a handoff.
To Cook’s credit, he is an excellent receiver out of the backfield (53 receptions for 519 yards in 2019) and his pass protection has improved as a pro. He does check these boxes that have recently become a staple in running back evaluation.
Cook is a modern running back who can be a star in the current NFL. But what’s hurting him is a recent revolution that many franchises, experts and fans are taking note of. Running backs, superstars or not, are replaceable.
Le’Veon Bell became a household name in Pittsburgh as a dynamic rusher and receiver for a high-octane Steelers offense. When he sat out the 2018 season, James Conner stepped in and people realized that not much changed. Conner accumulated nearly 1,500 total yards and 13 touchdowns in 2018, earning a trip to the Pro Bowl.
Meanwhile, Bell signed a lucrative deal with the New York Jets prior to the 2019 season. Predictably, the former Steeler had the least productive season of his career while playing with a worse offensive line and quarterback. Now, the Jets are handicapped by a large contract that is paying Bell over $15 million in 2020 for mediocre production.
On the flip side, this most recent Super Bowl might be the best example that shows running back production is largely a result of the situation, scheme and supporting cast. Damien Williams went undrafted and spent several years as a backup with the Miami Dolphins before getting an opportunity with the Kansas City Chiefs in 2018.
Williams has thrived in Andy Reid‘s offense as both a rusher and a receiver, especially in the playoffs. The former Oklahoma Sooner has played in five playoff games as a Chief and has scored 10 touchdowns in those games.
Meanwhile, the San Francisco 49ers were one of the most dominant teams on the ground in 2019 thanks to a plethora of running backs. Matt Breida, Tevin Coleman and Raheem Mostert all reached 500 rushing yards and each of them averaged at least four yards per carry.
Mostert and Brieda actually averaged over five yards per carry.
Mostert and Breida were both undrafted, while Coleman was a third-round pick several years ago. Many NFL fans had never heard of these guys prior to 2019. Mostert then ran for over 200 yards and four touchdowns in the NFC Championship game against Green Bay, and he was suddenly a household name.
In most cases, what running backs are able to achieve is closely tied with the opportunity they are given. Mostert, Brieda and Coleman were all given a large share of carries because the 49ers were ahead most of the time in 2019. Meanwhile, Kyle Shanahan’s efficient offensive scheme and a rock-solid offensive line made running the ball look much easier than it generally is.
Meanwhile, Bell and the Jets were always playing from behind, so his production naturally declined because his opportunity changed drastically from what it was in Pittsburgh.
So how does this relate to Cook?
Minnesota has to make that Bell decision here soon with Cook, whether it’s this offseason or after the 2020 season. Based on his 2019 season — and if all goes well in 2020 — Cook and his agent will likely ask for $10 million per season, and perhaps more.
It’s tough to argue that any running back is worth $10 million per season when it’s clear that running back production is largely a result of the opportunity on the situation the player is in. Cook, for instance, ran the ball behind a solid offensive line in an efficient zone running scheme. Meanwhile, Zimmer’s run-first philosophy and the Vikings holding a lead most of the time granted even more opportunities for Cook and Minnesota’s running backs.
Would Alexander Mattison or Mike Boone perform to the level Cook did in 2019? Probably not. But is that difference worth a $10 million per year contract? Also probably not.
This is before bringing up Cook’s injury history, which isn’t exactly awesome. The running back position, in general, is at risk for injuries more than many other positions.
Minnesota’s best plan of action with Cook is to let his contract play out in 2020 and then let him test free agency. Some team will probably offer him a contract in the range of what he and his agent will be looking for, and he should take it.
But it would be a mistake for the Vikings if they were to make that offer.
