The Minnesota Vikings defense will have a different look in 2020, with as many as five new starters. None of the departed starters came as a big surprise. It was inevitable that some left via free agency and others were let go given the team’s limited salary cap space.
What did come as at least a mild surprise, however, was the departure of defensive coordinator George Edwards, whose contract expired at the end of the 2019 season. Edwards had been Mike Zimmer’s defensive coordinator for all six of his seasons in Minnesota. The Vikings chose not to bring him back after his deal ended, opting to go in a new direction with Andre Patterson and Adam Zimmer, Mike’s son, as co-defensive coordinators. In addition, veteran defensive coach Dom Capers was brought in as senior defensive assistant.
It’s going to be a crowded coaches’ room, with the head coach still calling defensive plays and having the final say. Fresh eyes and voices could help, though. That’s the plan anyway.
The Vikings finished fifth in the NFL in scoring defense last season, allowing 303 points (just 18.9 per game). One wouldn’t think that kind of success would lead to a coaching change, but beneath the veneer of a top-10 scoring defense, problems were percolating. Most notably, the Vikings had become a bend-don’t-break defense in 2019 – something Zimmer must have recognized wasn’t a sustainable model. Moving forward with such a risky approach isn’t good for a head coach’s blood pressure.
Only five defenses held opponents to touchdowns on fewer than half their trips inside the 20-yard line in 2019. The Vikings were one of them.
Having the second-best red-zone defense in the NFL is nice, but it often obscures other issues.
As I noted in this space a few weeks ago, the Vikings’ once-vaunted third-down defense has eroded significantly the past two seasons. The decline in third-down effectiveness was a significant factor in Vikings’ opponents consistently winning the time of possession battle in 2019.
Last year marked the low point of the Zimmer Era in Minnesota in terms of opponents’ time of possession, as they finished 28th in the league. Getting a little more granular, opponents took an average of 2 minutes, 53 seconds off the game clock per possession and averaged 6.3 plays per possession against the Vikings last season. Both metrics are the worst since Zimmer took over in 2014.
But the Vikings were able to get away with it because the extended drives weren’t culminating in touchdowns at anything approaching a normal rate.
There’s a certain amount of good luck that goes into such bend-don’t-break results. Banking on luck isn’t a sound strategy.
To put this level of bending while not breaking into context, over the past two seasons only six teams (three each season) have allowed fewer than 2.0 points per drive while at the same time allowing opponents to hold the ball for more than 2 minutes, 50 seconds per drive. One of those teams was last year’s Vikings. And of those six teams, last year’s Vikings allowed the second-fewest points per drive (1.74).
Finishing as a top-10 scoring defense is hardly a new phenomenon for the Vikings.
- The various versions of Purple People Eaters have had a top-10 scoring defense 22 times in the 59-year history of the franchise.
- Of those 22 teams with a top-10 scoring defense, they have finished outside the top-10 in total defense (yards allowed) just five times.
- Last year, the Vikings finished 14th in total defense, giving up 341.6 yards per game – their lowest ever total defense rank in a season in which they finished as a top-10 scoring defense.
The likelihood of any defense maintaining such a level of stinginess in terms of points allowed while giving up that kind of yardage is awfully low.
Maybe the new coaches could help. NFL teams need to constantly adjust their schemes or opponents will figure them out. Zimmer knows this. For example, that’s one reason we don’t see his famous double-A gap looks on defense as often as when he first arrived in Minnesota. Things need to be changed up. Teams need to evolve.
The addition of Capers in the coaching room has fueled a lot of speculation that the Vikings might switch to a 3-4 defense. The changes aren’t likely to be that dramatic. Will they run more 3-4 in 2020? Probably. Capers is also expected to help install more ways to bring pressure defensively.
Changes in coaches and schemes, when combined with so many new faces on defense, is bound to make a difference in 2020. All the changes at once, however, could lead to a rocky start.
Once the new-look Vikings defense gets the kinks worked out, their aim will be clear: avoid raising their head coach’s blood pressure. Step 1 toward that goal is limiting all the long drives as a method of holding teams out of the end zone. It’s a much more sustainable plan than constantly bending while straining not to break.
