Struggles on third and short are becoming one of the most common frustrations with Mike Zimmer’s defense this year. The corner lines up about eight yards from the line of scrimmage, and the opposing wide receiver runs some uncontested basic route to the sticks for an easy conversion.
Why does this seem to happen so often? It may be confirmation bias: It is often easier to remember those instances than the many third down stops. Previous Minnesota Vikings defenses were historically good on third down, so the problem may not be as bad as it appears now. But these failures stand out amidst many of this defense’s other shortcomings.
But even a few instances of free third down conversions should be investigated. After the 2019 season, I asked Trae Waynes about the rules for alignment in Zimmer’s scheme. “We could have four different calls in one call based off of a motion, a check, a shift, anything. So I would say you just have to mentally be strong and know the plays, know the playbook, and know who you’re working with.”
Waynes couldn’t exactly explain an example to me because it would be far too complicated to boil down to one scenario. Zimmer tasks his cornerbacks with deciding their alignment for themselves. They consider a number of factors beyond down and distance for this. If it were as simple as putting your heels at the line to gain, offenses would have an easy time exploiting such a predictable tendency.
Zimmer instructs his corners to consider down and distance, formation, personnel package, motions, matchup, quarterback tendencies, tape tendencies and more to determine their alignment. It could happen in tandem, where the outside corner plays off, taking any high route and the slot corner plays press, taking any low route. That could switch before the snap to confuse the quarterback’s read. But simply dismissing it as a decision too complex to analyze is unsatisfying. So let’s play pretend.
Let’s put ourselves in the shoes of a Vikings cornerback preparing to play the Texans on Sunday. We’ll choose Holton Hill of his role, and focus on third and short passing plays. In real life, Hill will have to make run-pass reads as well, but for the sake of this exercise we can simplify things.
[videopress pcrF2DGE]What patterns do you notice? Think from the perspective of Houston offensive coordinator Tim Kelly. What is the purpose of these play designs? Their spacing? Why deploy them on 3rd and short? If you’re struggling to locate a pattern, here’s a hint:
If you look at the formation, Deshaun Watson is in shotgun on all nine plays. A lot of formations seem designed to create space for a quick throw over the middle. This makes sense if you consider Houston’s roster: Their offensive line has been struggling just as much as Minnesota’s, they have quick receivers like Randall Cobb and Brandin Cooks, and Watson is plenty accurate.
The Texans are also dead-last in play action usage, which is especially important in short yardage situations. The threat of a Watson scramble entices defenses to spy, which sucks a linebacker up to the line of scrimmage anyways. They could possibly do even more damage with play-action, but instead seem content with the space a QB Spy vacates over the middle. That means Hill can’t rely on help inside as much.
Hopefully, Zimmer will deploy the safeties to protect the Vikings against shot plays. Will Fuller and Cooks present strong deep threats, and without safety help, defensive backs would have to play off for most of the game just to keep up. If they do have the safety help, the Vikings have a couple of options.
First, they could play press more often in these situations and try to disrupt that timing. Hill and Cameron Dantzler, who may get back in the lineup, love to get physical on the line of scrimmage. That’s risky, because if the receiver dodges your jam he’ll have you dead to rights, no matter the route. If it works, even the smallest timing disruption could unravel the entire play design.
If you want to play it a little safer, you can play off, and try to break on the in-breaking routes. It’s an aggressive move that won’t work without safety help over the top. The Texans could fake a slant, break upfield into a go (AKA “sluggo”) and leave a cornerback swinging at air. But if the safety is there to pick up a deep route, you could play an aggressive off-coverage style that baits Watson into throwing interception opportunities.
If the Vikings can’t give their corners safety help or linebacker help, they’ll have to play things straight-up. That would be inadvisable, since Houston’s receivers present a strong challenge to Hill and the rest of the untested Vikings’ secondary.
There are plenty of other strategies to try and slow the Texans. This permutation allows the cornerbacks to make more plays while considering fewer decision points, while covering the cost of a linebacker spying Watson all game. Even if they don’t come up with the same answer, it’s likely the Vikings are going through a more complex version of this exercise in preparation for Sunday’s game.
