This afternoon, I found myself alone in my room watching the FIBA Basketball U19 African Championship game. Watching that game, one thing stood out: I need the NBA to come back. We’re just a few days away from the Minnesota Timberwolves’ first regular game and there are still many questions surrounding this team. Primarily, Wolves fans are wondering who is actually going to be playing minutes for this team.
We can certainly assume that Karl-Anthony Towns, D’Angelo Russell, Ricky Rubio and Malik Beasley have their minutes locked in. Whether Rubio and Beasley are staring may still be up in the air, but I would be shocked to see any of those four off the floor at the end of games, at least to start the year.
The next piece of the puzzle is figuring out who will start at the 3 and 4, but before I do that, I have to figure out where the heck Josh Okogie fits into this rotation.
It seemed pretty simple to assume that if Okogie is in the starting line-up, he’d play the 3. Of course, if he were to come off the bench we would likely see him at the 2 or 3 depending on matchups. All this went out the window this weekend when coach Ryan Saunders mentioned Okogie’s name while talking about players who could slide in next to Towns at the 4.
This incredibly small moment during the press conference sent Wolves Twitter (myself included) into a tailspin. Suddenly the term “effective height” was being thrown around like it actually means something.
This isn’t the first time I’ve heard Saunders speculate about how Wolves fans might see Okogie expand his game on the court. Before the 2019-20 season, I got the chance to ask Saunders about the possibility of seeing Okogie play more often with the ball in his hands. Okogie had just played for the Nigerian National Team during the FIBA World Cup that summer. He looked amazing as the primary playmaker for the Nigerian team putting up 12 ppg, 4.4 apg, 3.6 rpg, 42 percent from 3. Naturally, I was very curious to see if that was something Saunders thought Okogie could do at this level.
Ultimately his answer was, and I’m paraphrasing here, something like this:
“Wow, what an impressive question! You must know a ton about basketball, I’m blown away! And look at how handsome you are! Would you like to come work for the Wolves? No? You’re too committed to Zone Coverage? Okay, well if that ever changes, let me know because you are awesome, my guy!”
Ok, he didn’t say that. But, he did talk about how he wanted the offense to be more fluid. He envisioned multiple players initiating the offense, pointing specifically to ball handling in transition. Of course, as Saunders does, he went on to list every player on the Wolves roster who was able to dribble the ball. We didn’t get to see Okogie initiate the offense last year, so will we get to see him play the 4 this year?
Before I answer that, I want to take a look at Okogie as a guard.
We all know that Okogie is one of the most promising perimeter defenders in the league. The entire state of Minnesota collectively soiled themselves when he blocked James Harden. As long as you’re near a toilet, take some time to watch this defensive highlight package:
His 7-foot wingspan and 42-inch vertical make Okogie a menace on the perimeter. I thought that it was hard for him to find more minutes in the rotation because of his offensive inefficiency, but I’ve long mislabeled his struggles.
When we talk efficiency, it’s easy to look at Okogie’s career field goal percentage (40.4-percent) and label him a bad offensive player. But that is far from the full story.
Okogie’s most impressive offensive trait is his ability to get to the free-throw line. He attacks the rim with force, drawing contact. Last season Okogie was one of the best players in the league at getting to the line. His free-throw rate of .480 ranked 8th in the league, ahead of players like Luka Doncic, Ben Simmons and Trae Young.
His ability to get to the line and convert (79.6 percent last season) makes me curious to see Okogie with the ball in his hands. What gives me pause is his low assist paired with his high turnover rate. I’m afraid he lacks the vision to be a legitimate primary ball-handler. Even though he has found ways to optimize his offensive game, his poor shooting has severely limited his offensive upside.
The only thing is before Okogie entered the NBA he was a promising offensive player. He spent two years at Georgia Tech where he averaged 16.9 ppg, 5.8 rpg, and 2 apg on 38-percent from 3! (Woah!) He took 173 attempts in college, which is a decent sample size. He entered the league and suddenly his percentage plummeted to 27 percent. His shot disappeared.
Unfortunately, it seems that Okogie’s performances in college and for the Nigerian National Team were flashes in the proverbial pan. I don’t think that his destiny is as a primary ball-handler, and I would guess I’m not alone in that thought.
As I discussed before, his ability to defend the other team’s best perimeter player is one of his greatest strengths he brings to the floor. If you want Okogie to guard the other team’s best player, then he is at his most valuable when he is in the starting lineup. However, his shooting woes do cause some issues with spacing. If the Wolves plan to start Okogie, the best lineup to surround him would probably be Towns, Russell, Beasley and Juancho Hernangomez, to maximize spacing. But a frontcourt of Towns and Hernangomez sounds about as sturdy as a wet napkin.
This exact conundrum is why Saunders is considering Okogie at the 4. As I wrote in a piece a few weeks back, rather than focusing on positions as fixed, with hard and fast expectations, we should think about the roles that need to be filled on a basketball court and who can fill them. So let’s think about some roles need to be filled next to Towns.
Towns is a great rebounder, but his elite shooting demands that he can’t spend all his time by the rim. Okogie is an incredible rebounder for his size. Again, he’s got a 7-foot wingspan and a 42-inch vertical. If Okogie lived in the dunker spot, that would give him space and opportunity to feast on the glass.
KAT’s struggles on defense are well documented. But for what it’s worth when it comes to defending the rim, Towns is actually not that bad. Defensive stats are funky, but per NBA.com, teams shot 51.2 percent against him within 6 feet of the rim. That puts him around the middle of the pack of starting-caliber centers.
One area where Towns really struggles in quick read situations. He struggles to read rotations, he is slow to help, and when he has to make a defensive choice that isn’t “block this shot,” he often makes the wrong one.
Okogie’s speed and decision making could really help Towns. He has the ability to read defenses and can be in the right place at the right time. With an elite level help defender at his side, that will take a lot of pressure off of Towns to make the right choice. It’s easy to imagine Okogie racking up help-side blocks while he’s paired with Towns in the frontcourt.
Okogie may seem small, he weighs as much as Hernangomez and his arms are just as long. There is no doubt in my mind that Okogie could guard NBA power forwards better than anyone on this roster, so on a team that is so starved for defense, why not try it?
I’m not sure if Okogie’s skill-set will be maximized by playing power forward, but I think that he’s got a skill-set that can’t be maximized in the NBA. Rather, he is a player who can help maximize a roster. He’s a jack of most trades (maybe his shooting will magically reappear) and a master of one: defense.
The only question is, who do you want him to defend?
