Locks
NBA – Timberwolves -2 vs. Grizzlies (-110):
I usually wouldn’t bet on the Minnesota Timberwolves to win games, but they’re actually a decent team when Karl-Anthony Towns plays. The Memphis Grizzlies are a team that might squeak into the playoffs, but without Ja Morant I don’t think they’ll be able to keep up with D’Angelo Russell and the Wolves. Josh Okogie being back for Minnesota is also more important than it might look on paper as he sparks the team often when he is on the court.
Bonus Pick: I also like the over in this game if it’s anything below 220. Right now it’s sitting at 218.5 so get on it early. The Wolves are 5-1 to this total in January and with KAT back in the lineup I expect that trend to continue.
NBA – Pelicans/Clippers Over 218.5 (-110):
After a slow offensive start, the New Orleans Pelicans are 4-0 to this number in the month of January. I know the Los Angeles Clippers are supposed to be one of the best teams in the NBA, but they just allowed 127 points to the Chicago Bulls… and still won. Both of those impressive feats trend to the over so I’m going to roll with it as long as this number stays below 222.
This one is also fun because it’s the late game on ESPN.
NCAA Basketball – Texas -2 vs. Texas Tech (-110):
The last week in college hoops has definitely been interesting to say the least, but one thing I know is that Texas Tech is getting too much respect here on the road after destroying the two worst teams in the Big 12. Meanwhile, Texas is coming off a big win at West Virginia and has been quite battle-tested the past few weeks, including a dismantling win over Kansas.
I’m gonna go with my gut in this spot and trust Courtney Ramey and Greg Brown to get another win at home.
NCAA Basketball – The Citadel/Furman Over 160.5 (-110):
This lean is based off of one thing; pace. Both of these teams rank near the top in PPG at over 85 a piece with The Citadel coming in over 90! The Southern League gets one of its premier matchups here, so if you have ESPN+ and work from, I recommend you tune into what should be a high-scoring affair with an early tip-off.
NCAA Basketball – Auburn/Georgia Over 155 (-110):
We got the over to cash in Georgia’s last game, and I think it’s a good play here as well. As I mentioned for that game against Arkansas, the Bulldogs play at an incredibly high pace, 8th in the country, but when you marry that with the 146th field goal percentage defense it creates a high number of successful possessions for the other team.
As a result, we’ve seen all of Georgia’s conference games fly over what have been pretty high totals, and all of them have gone over this number. As for Auburn, their games against similarly-styled opponents as Georgia have all flown over this number as well. The debut of Sharife Cooper, who scored 26 in his first game on Saturday in a 94-90 shootout with fast-paced Alabama, is key for the Tigers. I think one if not both of these teams will hit 90 in this game, so grab the over.
Degenerates
NCAA Basketball – Duquesne +6.5 @ Dayton (-110):
A quick look at Dayton’s schedule should tell you why this number is far too high for the Flyers to be laying. So far this season, in eight of their games, the average margin has been 3.8 points, and the other game went to overtime. Needless to say Dayton plays in a lot of squeakers, and a point spread approaching three possessions is just too much.
Add in the fact that they are just 2-4 ATS as a favorite and 2-4 ATS at home, and I think this Duquesne team that’s full of upperclassmen can keep it relatively close. The Dukes are also 58th in scoring defense and 302nd in scoring offense, while Dayton is 88th defensively and 235th offensively, which should lead to a lower scoring game that usually favors the underdog.
NCAA Basketball – Boise State/Wyoming Over 145.5 (-110):
What a terrible beat on the first game of this doubleheader, as the over fell five points short when Wyoming scored two points over the last eight minutes of the game. Despite that brutality, I still think this is a matchup that will create a lot of points. Boise did their part in that game, scoring easily against a weak Wyoming defense. The Cowboys just collapsed down the stretch, and ended up seven percentage points below their season shooting percentage.
Given that this is the second leg of a doubleheader and Boise is a classic zig-zag team, I think we also see a closer game here, which tends to create more fouls and free throws towards the end. And an interesting aspect of Boise’s doubleheaders this season is all three of the second meetings have been higher scoring, by an average of 12 points. With a few points of discount on the total from Monday’s game, I’m taking another swing at the over here.
NCAA Basketball – Lamar @ Sam Houston St. -8.5 (-110):
I thought Abilene Christian would cruise through the Southland this year, but it looks like Sam Houston State will be serious competition for them. The Bearkats are on a pretty incredible 7-0 ATS run over the past month, including two outright wins as road underdogs against conference foes.
This will be their first conference home game after opening with three on the road that they won by an average of 10.6 points, and it should be an easy one for them. Lamar is, well, not good, owners of the 327th shooting percentage and 335th offensive rating. The Cardinals should get overwhelmed by SHSU’s pace that is 11th nationally, and their anemic offense just won’t be able to keep up. I see another double digit win for Sam Houston here.
Tiny Nick is 97-52 ATS (+44.9 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining, but riskier picks.
