Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 1/18

Photo Credit: David Butler II (USA TODAY Sports)
Locks

NCAA Basketball – Citadel/Greensboro Over 161.5 (-110):

This is a nose-bleed total, but with this Citadel team, anything is possible. The Bulldogs are fresh off an NBA-style 110-103 regulation loss at VMI, where neither team shot a particularly high percentage. But The Citadel allows the 6th most field goal attempts per game, 5th most points, and gets up the 36th most shot attempts themselves — including the most 3-pointers in the country.

This has led to them going over the total in their last five games, including over this specific total. Greensboro is not known as an offensive powerhouse, but they just had two games against the 321st Samford scoring defense and scored 87 and 82 in those games, showing they can exploit bad defenses.

As long as this Citadel team is involved against a competent offense, I’m going to look to the over.

Degenerates

NCAA Basketball – Florida State/Louisville Over 140.5 (-110):

I’m surprised to see a total in this very moderate range with these two teams. I think it’s a reaction to the slower pace both these teams play, but a look at efficiency metrics tells a different story. Florida State is excellent on the offensive end, ranking 29th in offensive efficiency. But they are not very good on defense, ranking 133rd in defensive efficiency.

It’s a similar story for Louisville, ranking 57th in offensive efficiency but 119th on the defensive end. That should all add up to a high rate of successful possessions in this game. It’s also worth noting that the last three games for both teams have gone over the total and this particular number as they’ve settled into ACC play.

I also see a tightly contested game in this high-profile spot, where can get you the free-throw scoring boost towards the end, so I’m on the over.

Tiny Nick is 107-57 ATS (+49.5 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.

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Photo Credit: David Butler II (USA TODAY Sports)

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