Tiny Nick is 107-57 ATS (+49.5 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
LOCKS
No locks today.
DEGENERATES
NCAA Basketball* Alabama/LSU Over 164 (-110):
There’s just no way I’m stepping in front of an under with these teams on the floor, as LSU is eighth in offensive efficiency and Alabama is 21st in pace, which is a good recipe for lots of scoring. But it’s the recent performances by Alabama that are so impressive, with 85 plus points in their last four games, scoring over 1 point per possession in their last seven games, and making 10 or more 3s in six of their last seven. LSU might be the only SEC team that can keep pace, with elite scoring duo Cam Thomas and Javonte Smart in the backcourt and defense being semi-optional as the Tigers are 111th in defensive efficiency. But every time these teams have faced another fast-paced team it’s been a track meet, so I’m counting most on style of play to carry this over the total. I also noticed a fairly even early ticket split on this total but it still rose, meaning sharps think this is headed over as well.
NCAA Basketball* USC/Oregon State Over 137.5 (-110):
This is a total that’s placing too much value on USC’s defensive efficiency numbers and ignoring other glaring statistics and trends. The most important of those is the roll USC has been on offensively, averaging 85 PPG in their last four Pac12 games and moving up to 39th in offensive efficiency. All of those games have finished at or above this total, and three of those opponents have far better defensive efficiency ratings than Oregon State, who checks in at 284th in the country. That bad defense has led to their last three Pac12 games (all against similar or lower-rated offensive teams to USC) averaging 152.3 PPG and flying over this total. This is a very moderate number in today’s college basketball, and given the recent trends with these teams I see it going over.
NCAA Basketball* UNC-Asheville (Moneyline +120) @ Gardner-Webb:
This is another play on getting in front of the zig-zag but with the added value of catching juice. These are both strong zig-zag teams in conference play so far, especially Gardner-Webb who averages a 16-point swing in their favor in the second legs of doubleheaders. And with Asheville, they perform 11 points better in the first leg of doubleheaders than in the second game. I also think Asheville is just the better team here with statistical advantages across the board, so I definitely want the value of plus buyback in a situation where these team’s performances are so opposite. It seems sharp bettors agree, as this spread opened at Gardner-Webb -4 and has been on the move towards Asheville, so grab it soon while you’re still getting juice in your favor.
NCAA Basketball* Maryland @ Michigan -10.5 (-110):
This is a big test for Michigan, coming off their first loss after reading their own news clippings on how great they are. I actually do think this is a team capable of being elite, and they got caught by a revenge spot at Minnesota. In that game Michigan shot a season-low 39% from the field, a statistic that has to be looked at as an anomaly for the sixth best shooting team in the country. The Wolverines are also still a 9-3 ATS team, including 7-2 against the number at home. They already beat Maryland on the road by 11 points where they shot an unreal 59% from the field, getting whatever they wanted inside. I think this is a big bounce back spot and the Wolverines roll.
