Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 1/23

Mandatory Credit: Sandra Dukes-USA TODAY Sports
Locks

NCAA Basketball – Maryland @ Minnesota -5.5 (-110): 

Who’s more dominant, the 1972 Dolphins, the Jordan Bulls, or these Gophers at home this season? Okay, it’s not that extreme, but Minnesota really clamps down on defense in their home games, posting a mark of 0.243 points per possession fewer than on the road.

They’ve also allowed only 57.7 PPG to their last three home opponents who were all very strong offensive teams, and have covered in six straight home games. I don’t see any reason for that to stop today against an inconsistent Maryland squad who is 1-4 ATS and straight up in their past five games and has not looked competitive in the four losses.

Until this Gophers home trend is proven wrong I’ll keep riding it, and I think they roll again here.

NBA – Wolves/Pelicans Over 220 Points (-110): 

I’m gonna say it right away… the Pelicans -8 in this spot are very intriguing as well. The Minnesota Timberwolves have apparently had an in-house meeting and are trying to right the ship but I just don’t believe it.

This number has brought down by recent performance but I expect them to play a little harder and faster and this New Orleans Pelicans team can score against bad defenses so I expect them to put up 120-plus in this one. Look for the Wolves to do just enough to hit the 220 mark while also probably losing by 8-plus.

NCAA Basketball – Kansas @ Oklahoma +1 (-110):

This Kansas team is getting may more respect than they deserve based on their name. Oklahoma has proven to be a pretty good team and after losing by four on the road to KU recently — this should be a good home rubber match for them. Duke, Kentucky, and KU just haven’t been their usual selves during this COVID season so look for KU to get exploited on the road today.

NCAA Basketball – Missouri +9 @ Tennessee (-110):

Tennessee is another team I was high on coming into the season but they’ve been a little random and disappointing in some spots. This game opened at -6 for them and moved to -9 so I’m going with the underdog Missouri team that has played well as of late. 9 points is a lot to cover in what should be a low-scoring game, so roll with the road dog in this one.

NBA – Lakers/Bulls Under 227.5 (-110):

This is a high total for a game that the Los Angeles Lakers’ defense should be able to hold the Chicago Bulls to a pretty low number in. This number is inflated because of Chicago’s recent offensive output and the game these two had against each other just last week, but I expect things to normal out here in what should be about a 112-100 game.

Degenerates

NCAA Basketball – Central Arkansas @ Abilene Christian -12.5 (-110):

This feels like a great bounce-back opportunity for Abilene, who is coming off their first conference loss in a suddenly competitive Southland conference race. It’s the perfect opponent for what Abilene likes to do, which is playing defense. The Wildcats are 2nd in the country in defensive efficiency and 8th in opponent effective field goal percentage. Matched up against the 297th offensive efficiency team in Central Arkansas, this one could and should get out of hand. Abilene has won their two conference home games by an average of 26 points, so they’re not afraid to blow teams out, and I think that’s what we see here. This number offers a discount from their loss at a very good Sam Houston team, so lay the points with confidence.

NCAA Basketball – Clemson @ Florida State -6 (-110):

I really like the revenge spot angle for Florida State here, especially given the opposing trajectories these teams are on right now. Just over three weeks ago Clemson was rolling and handled the Seminoles at home by 10 points. Since then they’ve had two wins by a combined five points, two losses by a combined 53 points, and posted a negative 14.5 point margin against the point spread.

In their three games since losing to Clemson, the Seminoles have been the hottest team not named Alabama, posting a plus-16 point margin against the point spread and owning a 1.269 point per possession mark, best in the country. I’ll take a hot team at home against a cold team looking for revenge, and only laying single digits just about any day.

Tiny Nick is 111-63 ATS (+46.9 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks. 

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Mandatory Credit: Sandra Dukes-USA TODAY Sports

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