Locks
NFL – 2-Team 7-Point Teaser; Bucs +10, Bills +10:
I’m not going to buy into the narrative that Tom Brady is going to March into the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field and come out with a win, but I’m rooting for it. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers know they are one game away from a home Super Bowl so they’re not going to go down without a fight. They also hammered the Green Bay Packers on the road earlier this season. 10 points is a lot so I’m teasing up on the road dog.
As for the Buffalo Bills, they honestly haven’t looked good in the playoffs. But Patrick Mahomes was dropped on his head last week, which most likely took him out of rhythm because that he didn’t get to practice much this week. I hate betting against Mahomes, but the Kansas City Chiefs have been under .500 ATS this year and with a 7-point tease 10 points is too much to ask for so I’m rolling with the road dog here +10 as well in the Bills.
I threw a second play on this game in the degenerates so it should be an entertaining day of football.
NCAA Basketball – San Diego State/Air Force Over 126 (-110):
These teams are on the second leg of their doubleheader, and the first leg ended with a total of 159 points, 34 over the posted total for the game. Oddsmakers decided essentially to run it back, so I think we have some value here on this matchup going over again because they’re discounting a few key metrics.
First is that Air Force is 8-1 over this particular total in their conference games. While San Diego State is just 4-3 over this number, it’s been mostly a factor of strong defenses they’ve faced. Air Force has anything but a strong defense, ranking 339th in defensive efficiency and 344th in opponent effective field goal percentage. The Aztecs have just enough offensive punch at 1.018 points per possession to exploit that bad defense like they did in the first matchup. While I don’t expect another total that high, this posted number is too low and easily attainable given the underlying metrics.
Degenerates
Bonus Play; Bills/Chiefs Over 54 (-110):
As long as no new news comes out on Mahomes, I think the over is a fun play in this one. Teams don’t like to punt much in elimination games and although these two teams went under in their first matchup, a playoff shootout is usually more fun to bet on.
I think today’s game ends about 31-27 so I’m taking the over.
NCAA Basketball – Boston University @ Lafayette -5 (-110):
This is a spot where I’m looking to exploit the zig-zag at a discounted price. As if these zig-zags weren’t crazy enough, I’m also trying to factor in bad teams that overperform and then come back to earth, which is what I’m seeing with Boston University.
The Terriers have performed an average of 12.3 points better in the first leg of doubleheaders, and the result disparity is pretty stark when you look closely. This is not a good team, 257th in effective field goal percentage and 332nd in opponent effective field goal percentage, so they really had no business winning yesterday’s first leg.
If they zig-zag at their average rate then Lafayette easily covers this number, which ticked down a point from yesterday’s line so I think it presents good value.
Tiny Nick is 115-64 ATS (+49.8 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
