NCAA Basketball – Loyola-Chicago -6.5 @ Bradley (-110):
In a Missouri Valley conference that’s been plagued by the zig-zag, Loyola seems to be the one team turning it into a positive. The Ramblers are performing 11 points better in their second leg games of doubleheaders, and are 3-0 ATS in those spots covering the number by an average 12.7 point margin.
Simply put, Loyola destroys teams the second time around, which is bad news for a Bradley team who already found themselves in a 27-point hole yesterday before losing by 13. In what is becoming a habit for oddsmakers, we see the exact same point spread for this game as yesterday, which to me is ignoring Loyola’s dominance in the MVC so far this season — especially in these rematches.
The Ramblers proved they can do whatever they want against this Braves team, so I’m happy to take the same number with the trends pointing towards an even better result.
NCAA Basketball – Arizona State/Arizona Over 155.5 (-110):
This total is only a 1.5 point upward adjustment from Thursday’s game that finished with 166 points and probably should have had more if not for an incredible buzzer-beater that prevented overtime. Had there been OT, this would probably have been adjusted higher so I see value on the over in this rematch.
Arizona has risen to No. 23 in offensive efficiency and is 12th best in that category over their past three games. One or both teams have scored at least 80 points in all but one of the Wildcats’ Pac-12 games this season, leading to a 7-1 record to the over in conference play.
And it’s really no fluke that Thursday’s game was that high-scoring. The Sun Devils are 256th in defensive efficiency, while the Wildcats are 260th over their last three games. I see another hotly-contested game here with plenty of offense, so take the over.
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 117-65 ATS (+49.7 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.