Locks
NCAA Basketball – Auburn +14.5 @ Baylor (-110):
To be clear, Baylor is the superior team here and is not likely to be in any danger of losing this game. But this is a lot of points and I think Auburn is being undervalued. The Tigers offense is just worlds different with Sharife Cooper on the floor, evidenced by the 21-9 run that Missouri had with Cooper on the bench in foul trouble. They’re also one point shy of being 6-0 ATS with him.
Baylor in my opinion is being overvalued off their 48 point blowout of Kansas State. The best teams the Bears have faced this season (Illinois, Texas Tech, and Kansas) have all kept it within this number and Auburn can as well. And despite a significant ticket count edge to Baylor, this is looking like a sharp line freeze refusing to move off the 14.5, so bet with the smart money here and take the points.
NCAA Basketball – Belmont -2.5 @ Murray St. (-110):
I’ve made this point before and I’ll make it again: There’s no reason to step in front of this Belmont team right now. They’re hitting the mid-season stride that’s become typical in recent years. Not only are they 8th in the country in offensive efficiency, they’re 2nd best nationally in the last three games.
Unless Ja Morant walks through the door, I don’t like Murray State’s chances here. The Racers are a meager 3-9 ATS, including 2-4 against the number at home. Belmont is a point away from being 4-0 ATS in conference road games, and it’s impossible to ignore their 13-point win over Murray on New Year’s Eve when the Bruins weren’t nearly as hot as they are now.
This won’t be as easy as some of their games, but Belmont wins this and 3 points is a short price.
NCAA Basketball – Texas Tech/LSU Over 150 (-110):
In this game of the Big12/SEC Challenge we get what looks like a defense versus offense matchup, but a deeper dive tells a different story. While Texas Tech is commonly thought of as a slow-paced and lower-scoring team, the Red Raiders have seen five of their last six conference games go over the total, including over this particular number. This has happened against Big 12 defenses, some of the best in the country, and now they’ll face an LSU team that’s 255th in points allowed and 194th in defensive efficiency.
The Tigers offense that is 9th in points per game and 10th in efficiency should hold its own against a Tech defense that has seen a significant rise in points allowed per possession over their recent games. With Mac McClung absolutely on fire and this being a showcase game, I see a lot of points in this one.
NCAA Basketball – Morgan St./Coppin St. Over 155.5 (-110):
I’m not sure what oddsmakers are looking at here or if they just have collective amnesia. These teams played a doubleheader just two weeks ago, with the games finishing at 164 and 168 total points, flying over the total of 153 that was posted in both games.
Morgan State, owners of the 89th most efficient offense nationally, is a strong over team in general with a 7-2 record to the over, by an average of 6.2 points, and all of their conference games have flown over the total. It’s a similar story for Coppin St., as they’ve played in nine straight over games and are 329th in points allowed per game.
They don’t play great basketball in the MEAC, but at least they don’t play much defense so take the over here.
Degenerates
NBA – Lakers @ Celtics Over 218.5 (-110)
While the Los Angeles Lakers and Boston Celtics have both shown they’re capable defensively, Boston’s defense has been slipping lately, and I don’t expect the Lakers defense to be as stout as usual in the midst of a 7-game road trip.
If Anthony Davis plays, the Lakers have a serious advantage in the paint. I also see the Celtics’ Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown as one of the more difficult wing combos the Lakers will see all season. Take these two potent offenses to hang 110 a piece in what should be a great basketball game.
NCAA Basketball – TCU +10 @ Missouri (-110):
As we’ve seen lately, 10 points is a lot for a college basketball spread, especially when the teams in play don’t light it up. Missouri has come on hot as of late but R.J. Nembhard and TCU should be able to keep this one within 10 points being that TCU is used to playing good competition in the Big 12. Missouri will probably win this one but by more in the 3-7 range than 10 if they do.
NBA – Warriors -4.5 @ Pistons (-110):
The Golden State Warriors have looked like a legitimate playoff contender over the past couple of weeks and they know they can’t give away games like this if they’re going to make a serious push. Stephen Curry, James Wiseman, Draymond Green, Kelly Oubre and even Andrew Wiggins have put it together as of late.
I think they’ll keep rolling today against a horrible Detroit Pistons team in a quest for a playoff spot in the loaded Western Conference.
Tiny Nick is 130-74 ATS (+53.1 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
