Locks
NCAA Basketball – Rutgers/Michigan State Over 149.5 (-110):
This Michigan State slump has been surprising given the talent on the team, but one thing we’ve learned from it is they really struggle on defense. They’re now 208th in field goal percentage defense and allow 75.6 PPG, including 77 to a hapless Nebraska team on Saturday — which is actually the fewest they’ve allowed to a Big Ten team all season.
Rutgers, meanwhile, has been very strong offensively, scoring 80 PPG and ranking 37th nationally in shooting percentage. This has all led to some very favorable trends: Rutgers is 6-2-1 to the over on the season, and Michigan State is 5-1 to the over as the home team. I think Rutgers gets a lot of easy looks on the interior, and that we’ll see a close game where the fouls at the end can help with the over.
NCAA Basketball – Missouri (-2) @ Mississippi St. (-110):
This game really comes down to trusting a good team to take care of business on the road against a below-average team.
Missouri has shown they are a very good team, and I loved their bounce back on Saturday, winning outright as a 6-point underdog. I’ve been down on Mississippi St. all season, and I think the fact that they took Kentucky to double overtime on Saturday is causing an overreaction in the market.
This is a 5-5 ATS team against a very weak schedule. They are only seven total points away from that being a 2-8 record and are 1-3 ATS as a dog, meaning they lose when they’re supposed to. I could see this being another fairly close game, but give me an experienced and more talented Missouri team at this short price.
Degenerates
NBA – Nuggets -10 vs. Timberwolves (-110):
This Minnesota Timberwolves team is completely lost without Karl-Anthony Towns, and after a disappointing start to their season, I expect the Denver Nuggets to roll the Wolves in back to back games.
Just two days ago when these two teams squared off, we saw just how bad Minnesota was in crunch time, and this spread is just small enough for them to not be able to cover and keep the game competitive all the way through. Look for Denver to make a statement and right their ship in the West standings.
Tiny Nick is 90-41 ATS (+47.9 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining, but riskier picks.
