Locks
NCAA Basketball – VCU -5 @ George Mason (-110):
This is a real ATS mismatch, as VCU is 8-2 against the number and George Mason is only 2-5 this season. And a comparison of schedules makes that record disparity even more drastic, especially seeing George Mason struggle against two of the poor A10 teams to open conference play.
Another mismatch to consider: George Mason’s difficulties taking care of the basketball. They average almost 14 turnovers per game, while VCU is the 6th best team in the country at generating steals. The Rams have been rolling teams this season because of that great defense, seven of their eight wins were by double digits. I’m going to continue to ride them and their stellar ATS record until proven wrong.
NCAA Basketball – Seton Hall +6 @ Creighton (-110):
This is a matchup of the hottest team in the Big East against perhaps the shakiest team in that conference. I’m as surprised as anyone that the shaky team is Creighton given the talent this team has. But it hasn’t materialized on the court, the Blue Jays keep struggling to put away teams they should beat handily.
Their ATS record reflects it, just 4-6 against the number and 2-4 as a home favorite. Additionally, five of their past seven games have been decided by five or fewer points, very important considering the spread in this game. Looking at Seton Hall, this team has a very solid 8-4 ATS record, and a perfect 4-0 record against the number as a road underdog. Given the situational splits and recent performances by Creighton, I’m definitely taking the points with a hotter team.
Degenerates
NCAA Basketball – New Orleans/Central Arkansas Under 152 (-110):
It can be tough to predict how bad teams that have been beaten up by power conference opponents all season will play against each other, but I don’t see how these two poor teams can score this much. These are the 211th and 227th field goal percentage teams in the country, and they’re also a combined 12-4 under to this particular total, with no New Orleans games having reached this total.
For me, the way to handicap this game is to pay less attention to the number of points allowed and more to the poor shooting percentages. This is because of the quality of their competition running up the score, while they’ve also proven they couldn’t put up points even in garbage time. I don’t generally like unders, but this game should be an ugly brand of basketball with a lot of empty possessions.
NCAA Basketball – Minnesota/Michigan Over 149 (-110):
There is no hotter team in the Big Ten than Michigan right now, especially on offense. The Wolverines are shooting 52% from the field (11th nationally) and have hit 80-plus points in all but one game, so I think they do their part in getting to the over here. But the question is whether the Gophers will contribute enough points or flop as they have previously on the road, which is why this isn’t a lock despite both teams being top-50 in PPG.
Minnesota scores the most points in the country from the free-throw line, so I think that combined with Michigan’s hot offense and the fact that these teams are a combined 13-8 to the over should pull this game over the total.
Tiny Nick is 90-43 ATS (+45.7 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining, but riskier picks.
