Locks
NBA – Timberwolves/Blazers Over 232 (-110):
The Minnesota Timberwolves’ defense is absolutely horrible, allowing over 120 points per game while the Portland Trail Blazers aren’t much better at about 118 PPG allowed. Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum can score in a hurry and we all know how fast-paced this young Wolves team is, especially without Karl-Anthony Towns in the lineup due to his wrist injury.
Bonus pick: I also like Malik Beasley’s over at 18.5 as well. I expect him to bounce back after a passive game against the Denver Nuggets. Look for Portland to run away with this one late in a game that probably goes over 240. These overs usually steam up so don’t wait to get on them.
NCAA Basketball – BYU/Gonzaga Over 163 (-110):
It really doesn’t seem like we need to overthink this. It’s Gonzaga after all, with their 95.1 PPG average, 55.4% shooting, and high-octane pace of play. Let’s look at the married side and total which gives us a 90-73 final, which is actually 3.5 points less than Gonzaga’s average against power and in-conference opponents.
A key stat to look at here is that BYU shoots the 37th most threes in the country, but only makes them at the 93rd best percentage. That creates long rebound and run-out opportunities for the opposition — exactly how Gonzaga likes to play. But given that Alex Barcello shoots an insane 63% from deep for the Cougars, they’ll be able to knock some down against Gonzaga’s 200th ranked 3-point field goal defense.
Gonzaga has a long history of putting the would-be WCC competitors in their place in games like this, so I wouldn’t be surprised if they hang 100 again, making 163 total points pretty attainable.
NCAA Basketball – Cincinnati @ SMU -5.5 (-110):
This seems like a great bounce-back opportunity for a quality SMU team after losing to Houston on Sunday. Before that loss, the Mustangs had been handling the other bottom feeder teams in the American conference, and Cincinnati might be their easiest competition yet.
The Bearcats are only 1-7 ATS on the season and 0-3 on the road, compared to SMU’s 4-2-1 overall mark and 3-1 as a home favorite. Typical of many Cincinnati teams, they really struggle to shoot and score, as their 68.1 PPG average ranks them 260th nationally. I don’t see how they produce enough offensively to stay close against a good SMU defense and their 50th ranked scoring offense. SMU gets right here after a frustrating home loss.
Degenerates
NCAA Basketball – Montana St. @ Northern Colorado -3.5 (-110):
This is an opportunity to get on the chalk side of one of those doubleheader swings. These teams will play again on Saturday, and so far this season Northern Colorado has made the most of their doubleheader openers. The Bears have won both times in that situation, including their last one as a 6-point underdog, but lost in the second game both times.
They’re the much better team here, especially defensively as they’re only allowing 63.2 PPG in conference games. Montana State has struggled to score and to stop any team that plays D1 basketball, as their 240th ranked scoring defense includes two games against non-D1 opponents. Mostly, though, this is a hunch that we’ll see another big point swing in Saturday’s rematch, and I want to buy the better team while I can.
Tiny Nick is 90-44 ATS (+44.6 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining, but riskier picks.
