Locks
NFL – 2-Team 6-Point Teaser; Bucs -2, Bills -0.5 (-110):
As I said on my podcast all week, I am absolutely hammering this two-team tease. I also mentioned that the sooner this pick goes in the better so get it before the spread steams up. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers should take care of business easily against a Washington Football Team that is almost incapable of scoring the football. Alex Smith has been a great comeback story but that story ends here against old man Tom Brady.
As for the Buffalo Bills, they’re simply the hottest team in the league. With a favorable matchup against an indoor Indianapolis Colts team in Buffalo, I think the Bills get this done in a big way. If I was to take an NFL spread on a game today it would be the -6.5 on this one as well.
NBA – Timberwolves/Spurs Over 231 (-110):
After what has started as honestly a rough week, it’s time to get back to basics. The Minnesota Timberwolves allow 121 points per game while the San Antonio Spurs allow 114. Not only do they both allow a lot of points, but both teams play at a fast pace and just aren’t very good or competitive on the defensive end.
I expect this to be another classic Wolves over whether Karl-Anthony Towns plays or not. This young Minnesota core loves running up and down the court, and even though they are shooting 25% from the 3-point line, they’ve still been hitting overs on numbers higher than this so keep rolling with it.
NCAA Basketball – Georgia/Arkansas Over 158 (-110):
Arkansas has been a cash machine to the over lately, with a 6-0 over run in their past six games, not terribly surprising given they’re the 11th highest scoring team nationally. Meanwhile, Georgia has been playing no defense, giving up a high number of possessions because they play at the 15th fastest pace in the country.
Their two conference games have both flown well over the total, along with all three conference games for Arkansas. With both these teams playing fast, getting to the rim and the free-throw line plus their trends in SEC games, I’m expecting a lot of points here.
NCAA Basketball – Oklahoma @ Kansas -7 (-110):
This is mostly a play on the narrative surrounding this game and the Jayhawks team. Kansas seems highly motivated to make everyone forget that they were blown out by Texas in their last home game, the 2nd worst home loss by a top-5 team in history.
This return to The Phog gives them an opportunity to right that wrong against an Oklahoma team that struggles against the top Big 12 teams and is 0-3 ATS as the visiting team. Given how Kansas looked in their 29-point win at TCU on Wednesday (a team Oklahoma beat by four) plus the desire to cleanse their home floor of that Texas loss, I’d say the revenge tour will continue here.
NCAA Basketball – Missouri St. -2 @ Valparaiso (-110):
Something we’ve seen in this COVID-impacted season is teams just starting the season or coming off a pause to their season struggle out of the gate. That’s what Valparaiso is dealing with, having canceled or postponed five games going back to Dec. 19th.
Nothing impressed me about the Crusaders before the pause, and I think they’re vulnerable here against MVC sleeper team Missouri State. The Bears sport a 5-1 overall and ATS record, with the only blemish in a zig-zag spot. They’re definitely the better team and taking early money, moving the line from pick-em to here, so I like them against the rusty Crusaders.
Degenerates
NFL – Seahawks -3 vs. Rams (-110):
This one really just comes down to the quarterback situations for these two teams. One team has Russell Wilson and one does not. The Los Angeles Rams are also dealing with Jared Goff‘s injured thumb on his throwing hand — he’s questionable to even start.
The Seahawks should take control of a low-scoring game so the under could be a fun play as well, but I’m keeping it simple and rolling with Seattle ATS.
NCAA Basketball – Radford -1 @ Charleston Southern (-110):
It’s going to be a long season for Charleston Southern, already holding a 1-6 ATS record, and so far in Big South play they’ve proven to be a zig-zag team. In both their doubleheader spots, they’ve dropped the first game by double-digits, then come back to only lose by two points.
This is their first of two against Radford, a team that looks like the only reasonable competition to Winthrop in the conference. The Highlanders have been excellent on defense, only allowing 63 PPG in conference games. They’re somewhat of a zig-zag team themselves, but better in the opener of doubleheaders. So in this spot against a bad Buccaneers team, I trust them to get the win.
Tiny Nick is 91-48 ATS (+42.3 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining, but riskier picks.
