Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 10/14

Photo Credit: Kim Klement (USA TODAY Sports)
Locks

NFL (1 Unit) Tampa Bay Buccaneers/Philadelphia Eagles Over 52 (-110): 7:20 PM CT on FOX

This bet assumes the health of Tom Brady’s thumb is good enough for him to play at a fairly normal level. It’s likely there’s some special avocado-based thumb treatment that will get him ready for this game, but be sure to monitor his status just the same.

This game is going to have to be played through the air though, as the Eagles should have an easy time throwing tonight. The Buccaneers are already allowing the most passing yards per game in the NFL, and are now missing their best secondary player in Antoine Winfield Jr., along with top coverage linebacker Lavonte David. Even Jalen Hurts should be able to produce against the ruins of the Tampa pass defense, and it’s the obvious strategy considering the strength of the Bucs run defense.

It’s also important to note that the Eagles allowing the 3rd-fewest passing yards per game is a bit of a mirage. They’ve been fortunate to play 3 teams with poor quarterback play but gave up 42 and 41 points to the Kansas City Chiefs and Dallas Cowboys, respectively. If Brady is able to perform anywhere near his normal level, the potent Bucs offense could easily replicate those results. They very well may be forced to with Philly scoring easily on the other side. This feels like a back-and-forth kind of game, and in perfect fall weather, I see plenty of points tonight.

NCAA Football (1 Unit) 2-Team 6 Point Teaser (-110)

Navy/Memphis Over 50: 6:30 PM CT on ESPN

After Navy re-assigned their offensive coordinator last month the offense seems to have taken off, with the Midshipmen scoring 26 PPG since. It definitely helps that they’ve played some questionable defenses, and they get to face another porous unit tonight. The Memphis Tigers are 116th in yards allowed and 109th in points allowed this season, and have let some very suspect offenses score in the 30’s against them for 3 straight games.

Memphis can sling it though, ranking 11th in passing yards behind quarterback Seth Henigan and big-play receiver Calvin Austin. Navy struggles in the back end of their defense and should allow plenty of points as they have all season. Being able to move this total through several key numbers is big, as these teams combined are 8-2 over this teased number. An adjusted total like this should be easy to clear with these two teams trading scores all night

Georgia Southern/South Alabama Under 56.5: 6:30 PM CT on ESPNU

This is a matchup of two teams built to hit the under, and being able to move this line north of the key number of 56 is huge. The Georgia Southern triple-option attack keeps the clock moving the whole game, and they hardly even try to throw the ball. They’re up against a very solid South Alabama run defense though, a unit that is also top-25 in limiting the number of opponent plays.

The Jaguars are also very slow-paced offensively and will look to grind the clock against a team not built for offensive explosions. On the season these teams combined have seen two games go over this teased number, and one of those required four overtimes to get there. I see a methodical game here with two boring offenses, and there’s a ton of value in having this teased through 56 to get a full eight-touchdown cushion.

Degenerates

MLB LA Dodgers/San Francisco Giants First 5 Innings Under 3.5 (-110): 8:07 PM CT on TBS

I don’t feel confident in picking which team will win this game, although I’m rooting for the little guy to unseat the champions. What I do know is that these starting pitchers have been dominant against the opposing lineups, and that should keep this game low scoring at least to start out.

Logan Webb has been brilliant for the Giants this season, and he’s held the powerful Dodgers lineup down as well. Dodgers hitters have combined for a .195 average and .570 OPS against Webb in their careers, plus he owns a 1.96 ERA at Oracle Park on the season.

Julio Urias for the Dodgers has been equally stellar, with the San Francisco bats only hitting .196 with a .538 OPS against him. The road ERA and WHIP numbers are also slightly better for Urias, and he’s allowed just 4 total runs across 3 starts at Oracle this season.

In an elimination game between two divisional rivals, this one is likely to be managed extremely carefully and should be low-scoring. But I see more value in this first five innings number given the dominance these starting pitchers have shown.

Tiny Nick is 400-305 ATS (+87.6 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.

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Photo Credit: Kim Klement (USA TODAY Sports)

Locks MLB (1 Unit) Houston Astros @ Boston Red Sox -1.5 (+140): 7:08 PM CT on FS1 It’s impossible not to back the Boston Red Sox here, […]

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