Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 10/19

Photo Credit: Brad Penner (USA TODAY Sports)
Locks

MLB (1 Unit) Houston Astros @ Boston Red Sox -1.5 (+140): 7:08 PM CT on FS1

It’s impossible not to back the Boston Red Sox here, especially given the pitching matchup and the fact you can get a solid plus-money buyback.

I’ll always take the team that’s on a roll in the MLB playoffs, and Boston is by far the hottest team still standing. With three grand slams in their past two games, the Red Sox are hitting everything and have rekindled their offensive prowess from early in the season. That should continue tonight against Houston Astros starter Zack Greinke, who has struggled lately.

Greinke closed the season with an 11.74 ERA across his last four appearances and has only been allowed one inning of work in these playoffs as a result. Facing this hot Red Sox lineup is a terrible spot for Greinke, as they have a career .341 average and .904 OPS against him.

I see Boston pounding Greinke early and often in this one, getting them out to an insurmountable lead. Every Red Sox win over Houston this year has come by a wide margin, so getting plus money on them racking up another is too good to pass on.

NBA (0.5 Unit) Brooklyn Nets @ Milwaukee Bucks -1 (-110): 6:30 PM CT on TNT

Teams like the Milwaukee Bucks playing on “ring night” can often come out flat and distracted, but somehow this one feels different.

The Bucks have heard for months how they were lucky to win an NBA title over the summer, particularly escaping the Eastern Conference and a hobbled Brooklyn Nets squad. I see that motivating them in this spot against the team that supposedly should have bounced them from last season’s playoffs.

Milwaukee also still has a huge matchup advantage in this game, with Giannis Antetokounmpo attacking the rim against a Nets team that has done nothing to shore up its awful interior defense. And with the Nets still missing Kyrie Irving (Out – Stubbornness), Brooklyn will play with essentially the same core that couldn’t finish off Milwaukee in June – a series where the Bucks were playing some of their worst basketball.

It’s mostly a feel play for me, but one that’s supported by a flip of favorites here as this line opened with Brooklyn laying a point. I’ll trust the line move to prove correct on a night where the Bucks look to prove themselves as anything but a fluke.

Degenerates

NBA: Nets/Bucks Over 233 (-110)

There has been a massive drop in the total of this game, falling all the way from an open of 240 to here where I think it’s time to go against the steam. A lot has been made of the hard-fought playoff series where all seven games went under this total, but that’s the playoffs and a far different brand of basketball. The three regular-season matchups were 2-1 over this number and averaged 240.3 points.

I see a much more free-flowing game here with the stakes being considerably lower. I’m also amazed at the very on-brand additions Brooklyn made to their bench, bringing in and drafting several natural scorers not known for defensive ability. That should help keep the pace and scoring high when the starters rest, getting this game over a drastically reduced total.

Tiny Nick is 408-309 ATS (+91.8 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.

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Photo Credit: Brad Penner (USA TODAY Sports)

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