Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 10/21

Photo Credit: Ken Blaze (USA TODAY Sports)
Locks

NFL (1 Unit) Denver Broncos/Cleveland Browns Under 41 (-110): 7:20 PM CT on FOX

Backup quarterbacks, third-string running backs, decimated offensive lines, and bad weather. I’m really not seeing where the points are going to come from in this game.

Both the Denver Broncos and Cleveland Browns are in the bottom five for offensive pace, so this was never going to be a track meet, to begin with. Add in that the Browns are second in the NFL in opponent yards per play, while Denver is fourth in scoring defense, and you have two quality defensive units in this game. The laundry list of backups those defenses will be going against make offensive success all the less likely.

This game will also be played in adverse weather conditions, with rain and high winds expected for the Cleveland area. The Browns played two home games last season in similar weather conditions, and those combined for 39 total points. This one is shaping up to be very similar, so I’ll take the under here.

NCAA Football (1 Unit) Tulane @ SMU -14 (-110): 6:30 PM CT on ESPN

This Tulane team is headed in the completely wrong direction, and tonight they’re running into a hot SMU squad that is perfectly suited to exploit their biggest weaknesses.

Tulane is 127th in points allowed and 115th in passing yards allowed. Going on the road to visit the 14th-best passing attack that’s scoring the 10th-most PPG is a recipe for disaster. The combination of Tanner Mordecai to Danny Gray will light the Green Wave defense up tonight. Tulane has dropped four straight against the number and has been atrocious in their past two road games, losing by an average of 31.5 points. By contrast, SMU has already covered 3-touchdown spreads in both their home games and has been far better on defense at home.

SMU has a chance to make a statement here and establish themselves as the 2nd-best Group of 5 team after Coastal’s loss last night. I think they take advantage against an outmatched Tulane team that simply won’t be able to stop what SMU does best.

NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) Louisiana Lafayette/Arkansas St. Over 70 (-110): 6:30 PM CT on ESPNU

This is a pretty massive total. But when Arkansas State is involved, all concerns about scoring enough points go out the window.

The Red Wolves simply can’t stop anything. They’re dead last in points allowed, dead last in yards allowed by an enormous margin, and four of their five FBS opponents have crossed the 50-point mark. Not surprisingly, four of those five FBS games went over this total, with Arkansas State games averaging 76.7 points.

Louisiana Lafayette is not known for a high-octane offense necessarily, but against this most atrocious of defenses, I see them pouring it on. One aspect of the Ragin’ Cajuns that helps over bettors is they’ve shown they’re not afraid to keep scoring at the end of a blowout, and that’s what we could see unfold here.

This is something of an awkward total being right on the key number of ten touchdowns, but neither team has seen their games follow touchdown scoring intervals. I like the points to pour in all game long on a perfect weather night for a shootout.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 411-311 ATS (+92.1 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.

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Photo Credit: Ken Blaze (USA TODAY Sports)

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