Locks
NCAA Football (1 Unit) Cincinnati/Navy Over 48.5 (-110): 11:00 AM CT on ESPN2
Cincinnati is starting to face some massive spreads as a result of their rise in the polls. While I think they could cover four touchdowns in this game, a smarter play seems to be the over on this low total.
Navy has been feisty on offense at home recently, putting up 34 points against UCF and 24 against SMU, as well as averaging 22.8 PPG their past four games overall. We know the Bearcats will want to keep scoring in this game as a result of needing style points, and that showed the last two weeks as they cleared this total on their own. That may well happen again, but I see Navy contributing too against a Cincy defense that’s struggled a bit with excellent rushing attacks.
It’s obvious to me that Cincinnati is well aware of the point spread and actively trying to cover it every week. That means pedal to the metal all game long for them, and if Navy can chip in a score or two this game should fly over.
NCAA Football (0.75 Unit) Oklahoma -38.5 @ Kansas (-110): 11:00 AM CT on ESPN
Huge spread. Don’t care. Lay the lumber.
Kansas has been the best team to fade all season long: 0-6 against the number with the 8th-worst ATS plus-minus and dead last in overall margin. It only gets more challenging this week against an Oklahoma team that’s shown them no mercy over the years. Lincoln Riley’s Sooner teams have averaged 50.8 PPG against the Jayhawks, and now they’re playing with the extra motivation of having new life in the CFP race. This team also looks rejuvenated with Caleb Williams at quarterback, and Riley will have no second thoughts about showing off his new toy as much as possible.
Williams and this hot offense should torch a Kansas team allowing the 2nd-most points and 5th-most yards in the country. Oklahoma will be keenly aware of the need to exceed expectations here – and thus the spread – against this lowliest of conference opponents.
NCAA Football (1.5 Unit) Tennessee @ Alabama First Half -14 (-110): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN
The Alabama first-half cash machine finally glitched out in their shocking loss to Texas A&M. However, given the situation here, I’m ready to trust again and think this should be an easy cover.
Nick Saban and his Crimson Tide team looked very much like they were done messing around in a 40-point demolition of Mississippi State last week. Alabama was covering this number at the half in that game, and on the season have led at the break by a combined score of 180-49, or 18.7 points on average. Perhaps most importantly, Alabama is very much incentivized to embarrass their SEC competition, having no margin for error in getting to the conference title game.
Tennessee is also in a bad spot themselves, coming off an emotional home loss in one of the uglier scenes you’ll see in college football. Against a far superior Alabama team with a ton to play for, I see this getting really ugly really early.
NCAA Football (0.75 Unit) Georgia Tech @ Virginia -6.5 (-110): 6:30 PM CT on ACC Network
Both of these teams are coming off a win over Duke in their last game, but I don’t think they’re being compared properly in the market.
Georgia Tech snuck by the Blue Devils by 4 points, while Virginia absolutely demolished them by 48 points. Virginia was laying 10.5 points in that game while Georgia Tech actually failed to cover in their matchup. That’s a disparity I’m having trouble wrapping my mind around, and I see the Cavaliers rolling here for multiple reasons.
The biggest of those is that the Yellow Jackets have struggled to stop good passing offenses, and now they face the nation’s passing leader in Brennan Armstrong. I was also impressed by Virginia’s defense last week – a unit that tends to struggle against the run holding an excellent Duke rushing attack down while pitching a shutout. An improving defense paired with this high-powered offense is a lethal combination.
With two ugly losses on their resume impacting perception, I still think Virginia is undervalued in the market. But I see a dangerous team that should easily cover a one-score spread here.
NBA (1 Unit) New Orleans Pelicans @ Minnesota Timberwolves -6 (-110): 7:00 PM CT on Bally Sports North
Are the Timberwolves for real, or did they just beat up on a Rockets team that’s actively tanking this season? This game will tell us a little more, but I think they can turn in a similar performance against a Pelicans team that’s had a rough start.
New Orleans has started off with two losses of 20 and 16 points, allowing 122.5 points in those games. The offensively-oriented Wolves should be able to exploit the same defensive weaknesses, especially with the Pelicans on the second leg of a back-to-back. And with no Zion Williamson, the Pelicans are lacking the necessary punch to compete on both ends of the floor.
It’s a young season and tough to draw very many conclusions, but this one simply shapes up a lot better for the Wolves. Having a couple of days off to rest and prepare for this tired Pelicans squad should net the Wolves another comfortable win and cover of this number.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 415-314 ATS (+93.8 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
