Locks
NCAA Basketball (1 Unit) Bellarmine @ Purdue -21.5 (-110): 6:00 PM CT on BTN+
This is maybe the deepest team Purdue has ever put on the floor. They’re absolutely a national title contender and should make a statement to kick off the season tonight.
The Boilermakers returned a ton of talent from last season, including low-post monsters Trevion Williams and Zach Edey, along with one of the best guard duos in the country. Poor Bellarmine is simply outmatched here against elite talent. The Knights made some noise last year in the ASUN for their first season at D-1, but simply don’t have the size or speed to match up here.
Mackey Arena will be rocking for this game, the first time Bellarmine has ever experienced a truly hostile environment at this level of basketball. The number here is a bargain as I have Purdue winning by 30 or more.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Belmont -3.5 @ Ohio (-110): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+
You might recall this Ohio team from back in March when they knocked off Virginia as a 13-seed. Well, they’re going to look a lot different this season, and have an extremely tough test here against one of the best mid-major teams in the country.
It’s really no exaggeration to say Belmont is bringing everything back from last season’s 26-3 team. The entire starting five is back, including all-conference studs Grayson Murphy and Nick Muszynski for a team that was elite on both ends of the floor last season. The returning players accounted for over 99% of Belmont’s offensive production last year, and are on a mission after injuries derailed their Big Dance dreams in the spring.
Meanwhile, Ohio has lost star point guard Jason Preston to the NBA, and that talent is tough to replace at this kind of school. I think Belmont looks to build their tournament resume early and won’t overlook a team that got so much attention in March. All the continuity for the Bruins should carry them to an easy win.
NCAA Basketball (1 Unit) Oral Roberts/Colorado State Over 154.5 (-110): 8:30 PM CT on STADIUM
Max Abmas withdrew from the NBA draft this spring and will look to defend his national scoring title. He should get off to a good start in what should be a high-octane game against one of the country’s better offenses.
Colorado State brings back a ton of talent, including excellent inside/outside duo David Roddy and Isaiah Stevens, from a team that was left on the bubble back in March. They also brought in D-2 All-American Chandler Jacobs to pad an offense that was 20th in offensive efficiency in their home games. They’ll need it against Oral Roberts, one of the fastest-paced teams in the country last season that was an Abmas missed three-pointer from going to the Elite Eight.
I see an offensive showcase here with the Rams looking to run it up against a team that got so much attention in March. With this game being played in Fort Collins, elevation and tired legs come into play for Oral Roberts as well. The tiny Abmas will make plenty of big shots all night though to get this game over the total.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) CSU Bakersfield @ UCLA -20.5 (-110): 10:00 PM CT on PAC12 Network
Expectations are sky high for UCLA this season after the Bruins went First Four to Final Four in the spring. With all the talent back from that magical run, they should look to start the season strong here.
UCLA made that run through the NCAA tournament on their excellent defense, something that was severely lacking for most of the season. They also got off to a very slow start last fall, and I see coach Mick Cronin instilling more toughness and defense in this team early on. For a Big West team Bakersfield was not terrible offensively, and they should get UCLA’s attention so that the Bruins bring a full effort.
But at the end of the day there’s too much of a talent disparity here, especially given the experience level of the Bruins. If they’re going to live up to the hype and national-title buzz, UCLA should and very easily can win this game by closer to 30 points.
Degenerates
NCAA Basketball Mercer/Arkansas Over 150.5 (-110): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN+
Arkansas last season was one of the fastest-paced teams in the country, particularly during their non-conference slate. They’ve returned a lot of talent, plus added elite weapons Chris Lykes and Stanley Umude. Mercer was incredibly inconsistent last season, but when they were on they could score with anyone. This has the look of a track meet if Mercer’s returning stars can play to their potential.
NCAA Basketball Morehead State +15.5 @ Auburn (-110): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN+
Morehead State was maybe the hottest team in the country during the second half of last season, going 19-1 down the stretch. They should still be dangerous with forward Johni Broome being one of the most difficult players to guard in the country. I have questions about this Auburn team that will need to navigate the absence of Allen Flanigan, an all-SEC type player who is rehabbing an Achilles injury. This is simply too many points against a team that shouldn’t be afraid of anyone.
NCAA Basketball Houston Baptist @ Texas -33.5 (-110): 8:00 PM CT on Longhorn Network
Texas is my pick to cut down the nets in April, if they can put it all together. This program won the coaching lottery by hiring Chris Beard, then won the transfer portal by bringing in elite players from everywhere. Putting all those pieces together to start the season can be a tall task, but if anyone is up to the challenge it’s Chris Beard. The Longhorns have the talent to crush a bad Houston Baptist team by 40-plus if they really want to.
Tiny Nick is 430-334 ATS (+85.3 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
