Locks
NBA (1 Unit) Phoenix Suns -3.5 @ Minnesota Timberwolves (-110): 7:00 PM CT on Bally Sports North
The Suns are on fire (pun somewhat intended) from both a straight-up and spread perspective. With the way this Timberwolves team has been playing, only needing a four-point win seems like a bargain.
Phoenix seems to think this month is no-loss November, as they’re 7-0 both straight up and against the spread. They’ve won their past 8 games by at least this number, averaging a 12.9 point margin of victory in that stretch. Pretty much the opposite can be said about this Wolves team. They’re on a 2-8 ATS run and have lost 5 straight at home by an average of 12 points per game.
Once again the Wolves find themselves in an offensive mismatch, with their 28th-ranked shooting going up against the highest shooting percentage team in the league. Time and again we’ve seen that disparity overwhelm Minnesota this season, and I see it again tonight. Phoenix is on a back-to-back, which builds a discount into this line. But the Suns are too good right now, and I’ll take that discount here.
NFL (1 Unit) LA Rams -3.5 @ San Francisco 49ers (-110): 7:15 PM CT on ESPN
It’s been opposite day in the NFL for the better part of a month, so that must mean one of these teams will reverse a glaring trend in this game. The Rams have lost four straight to San Francisco, while the 49ers have lost 11 of their last 12 home games. But tonight I think it’s LA that gets right and furthers San Francisco’s disappointing season.
The line here seems like an overreaction to last week’s debacle for Los Angeles, where they outgained Tennessee 347-194 but gifted them 14 points off turnovers. The Rams are still one of the most complete teams in the NFL and should be favored by more than this against a team with what seems to be a home-field disadvantage. The 49ers are also 0-4 ATS at home this season and have been smacked around in their own building by the likes of Colt McCoy and Carson Wentz in recent weeks.
Over the past three seasons, the Rams are 11-3 ATS after a loss. A down 49ers team presents a good opportunity to bounce back again. This is a talent, coaching, and situational mismatch that points to Los Angeles winning handily.
Degenerates
NCAA Basketball Buffalo -1 @ North Texas (-110): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN+
I love this Buffalo team in the MAC this season, and I think they could be flying under the radar in this game. The Bulls return a ton of talent and are led by the excellent senior trio of Jeenathan Williams, Ronaldo Segu, and Josh Mballa. They were able to hang with an outstanding Michigan team last week and should notch their first victory here.
North Texas lost a ton of talent from their NCCA tournament team of a year ago, and I see that experience gap being the deciding factor in this one. Buffalo is the tested team here and should pull out the win.
Tiny Nick is 442-340 ATS (+88.2 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
