Locks
NFL/NBA (1 Unit) 2-Team 6/5 Point Teaser
New England Patriots -0.5 @ Atlanta Falcons: 7:20 PM CT on FOX
I think there was a significant amount of overreaction in this line from last week’s results, causing it to rocket up from the look-ahead number of 4 points. The Patriots looked incredible while the Falcons were incredibly bad, but Thursday night games have been a little strange.
Underdogs are 6-4 ATS this season on Thursday, with the average winning margin being 6.9 points. There’s also a significant trend here in favor of Atlanta, where teams off an ATS loss versus a team off an ATS win are 44-15-1 ATS this season. I do trust New England to simply win the game here though, as I’ll take Bill Belichick against a rookie head coach any day. The Patriots are by far the superior team, but in an NFL season where chaos has become the norm, I’ll just ask them to get the win for this teaser.
Philadelphia 76ers @ Denver Nuggets -2.5: 8:00 PM CT on NBA TV
I’ll head to the NBA for a teaser partner to the Patriots, and lean on a Denver Nuggets team that’s been excellent at home and gets a favorable matchup tonight. Both of these teams have struggled with absences by their star players, but Denver has weathered that far better than Philadelphia has. The Nuggets have reeled off 6 straight home wins, covering the number in 5 of those.
Conversely, the 76ers have bottomed out, losing 5 straight games and suffering a beatdown in Utah on Tuesday night. This trip to altitude with a thin roster is a recipe for disaster, and I don’t see the Philly reserves being able to compete with this tough Denver team. Getting this number down under a full possession is a huge bargain for what should be a comfortable Nuggets win.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Samford/Oregon State Under 139 (-110): 8:00 PM CT on PAC12 Network
I will continue believing in this Oregon State squad as a dead under team until they prove me wrong. Against a Samford team with inflated statistics, I see another low-scoring game here.
Oregon State made an improbable run through the tournament in March, reaching the Elite 8 on red-hot shooting from deep. Well, this is not the same team, and they can’t shoot, period. This year’s Beavers are 293rd in shooting percentage, 356th in free-throw percentage, 323rd in offensive rating, and 3-0 to the under as a result. Tonight they welcome a Samford team that’s 246th in shooting percentage themselves despite a ridiculously soft schedule.
Oregon State is going to play at their typical glacial pace, and the combined shooting woes of these teams should create an ugly game where I want the under.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 446-345 ATS (+85.5 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
