Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 11/26

Photo Credit: David Berding (USA TODAY Sports)
Locks

NCAA Football (1 Unit) TCU @ Iowa State -15 (-110): 3:30 PM CT on FS1

One last opportunity to bet my Cyclones at home, and I like their chances of beating up on a TCU team that’s been ugly down the stretch.

The Horned Frogs come into senior day at Jack Trice and seem to be walking into a buzz saw. It’s their run defense that becomes the key matchup here, as TCU allows the 11th-most rushing yards per game in the country. Advantage Breece Hall and the Iowa State offense in this one, and I see him running wild in his last home game. Things have been ugly for TCU on the road this season as well, with their last 3 away games have resulted in a minus-28.7 scoring margin and 0-3 ATS mark.

Let’s not forget that Iowa State is the only team to beat CFP darling Oklahoma State this season. They may not be living up to their preseason hype, but that’s probably holding this number down to some extent. I think this turns into a runaway, so I’m laying the points with the Clones.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Duke/Gonzaga Over 154.5 (-110): 9:30 PM CT on ESPN

I really can’t look at this game and see anything but a shootout. These teams are among the top three or four collections of offensive talent in the country, and it should show tonight.

In what should be no surprise, Gonzaga has opened the season on a tear offensively. The Bulldogs are currently 2nd in offensive efficiency, 3rd in effective field goal rate, and 4th in overall offensive rating. Considering they’ve accomplished that while knocking off top teams in Texas and UCLA makes it even more impressive. The Blue Devils are no slouch themselves, owners of the 8th-best offensive rating.

Both of these teams have stars that the other team simply doesn’t have the ability to defend. This shouldn’t be too much of an up-tempo affair, but both squads should be extremely efficient on offense and carry the game over the total.

NBA (1 Unit) Portland Trail Blazers @ Golden State Warriors -6.5 (-110): 9:00 PM CT on NBCS-Bay Area

I just don’t understand why this run the Warriors are on isn’t getting the appreciation it deserves. They should be a much bigger favorite against a Portland team that keeps showing how awful it is on the road.

After turning a 19-point deficit into a 20-point win on Wednesday, the Warriors ran their home winning streak to 9 games. All of those wins have been by 13 or more points, with an average margin of 20.5 points. That’s led to Golden State having the 2nd-best ATS record and best plus/minus against the spread in home games. Conversely, Portland owns the 2nd-worst ATS record on the road and worst plus/minus against the spread in their 9 road games.

The Blazers have only stayed within this number twice away from home on the season, and those were against less than impressive teams. The Warriors might well be the best team in the NBA, at least right now as their statistical profile puts them 1st in defensive rating and 2nd in offensive rating. This line makes no sense as a result, and I will gladly lay the points.

NBA (0.5 Units) Anthony Edwards Over 23.5 Points (-110): 7 PM CT on Bally Sports North

Unfortunately, I’ve had a hard time as of late getting winning props on the card (mainly due to KAT getting 3 fouls in the first 3 mins). But with no Patrick Beverley in the lineup, the Wolves are going to need even more from their star youngster on the perimeter. As long as Ant can get an early 3 ball or two to fall we should be good on a number that Vegas has stubbornly refused to raise.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 457-356 ATS (+82 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.

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Photo Credit: David Berding (USA TODAY Sports)

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