Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 11/27

Photo credit: Kyle Robertson (Columbus Dispatch via USA TODAY Sports)

NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) Indiana @ Purdue -15.5 (-110): 2:30 PM CT on FS1

This is an in-state rivalry game with a weird trophy on the line, and those can often become a little strange. But Indiana has completely collapsed down the stretch this season, and I see Purdue wanting to take advantage.

The Hoosiers have fallen all the way to 120th in scoring this season, the result of myriad injuries to the offense including QB Michael Penix, Jr. His backups have been simply awful, leading to consecutive losses by a combined 56 points to average-at-best opponents. Purdue has the talent to run away in this game, as their pass offense ranks 7th nationally and has put up big numbers against the best teams in the conference.

I really don’t think this one is very complicated, as I see Indiana continuing its offensive futility while Purdue exploits its advantage through the air. That should earn the Old Oaken Bucket for the Boilermakers in a blowout.

NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) Oklahoma/Oklahoma St. Under 49.5 (-110): 6:30 PM CT on ABC

The Bedlam rivalry has given us some exciting and high-flying games over the years, but this one looks like it’s going to be a grind.

Oklahoma State now boasts arguably the best defense outside of Georgia, allowing just 14.9 PPG while giving up the 3rd-fewest yards per game. Combining that with an excellent rushing attack allows them to suffocate their opponents, and has created a 7-3-1 record to the under this season. They welcome an Oklahoma team that has struggled to take their offense on the road, averaging 10 PPG fewer away from home. The Sooner defense has also played much better of late though, and are actually 25th in rush defense.

These defenses are built perfectly to limit what these offenses are best at doing, somewhat of a rarity for Big 12 football. A total this low is another rarity for the conference, but it doesn’t seem low enough for this high-stakes but low-scoring game.

NCAA Football (2 Unit) Notre Dame -20 @ Stanford (-110): 7:00 PM CT on FOX

I’m not sure I’ve felt as strongly about a college football game all season as I do about this one. Everything from the matchup to the narrative strongly favors Notre Dame here, and I see an absolute beatdown coming.

Things have really fallen apart for Stanford down the stretch with 6 straight losses, the last 3 of which have been by an average margin of 32 points. Contrast that with a Notre Dame team that has found its stride, winning their last 3 games by an average margin of 36 points. Those wins have attracted the attention of the CFP committee, who has clearly given the Irish the signal that they’re alive for the playoff. With this being their final game the Irish need another statement win to give themselves the best resume, and Stanford is just ripe for the picking right now.

The Cardinal simply can’t stop anything on the ground, ranking 127th in rush yards allowed, so Kyren Williams should run wild in this game. Stanford has been getting blown out by lesser teams than Notre Dame, with far less motivation than the Irish bring tonight. This one will get ugly in a big way as Notre Dame tries to steal a CFP invite.


NCAA Football Wisconsin @ Minnesota +7 (-110): 3:00 PM CT on FOX

For over half a century Minnesota football has been fairly predictable, and a failure to claim Paul Bunyan’s Axe is almost an annual tradition. But this feels like just a few too many points, especially for a Gophers team that has hung around in games when they probably shouldn’t have.

In fact, Minnesota has won 5 of the last 8 games where they were the underdog, with two of those losses by less than a touchdown. Wisconsin’s vaunted defense sprung a leak last week against a below-average Nebraska offense, so I would not be surprised to see the Gophers keep this one inside the number.

NCAA Basketball Northern Colorado/Colorado State Over 148 (-110): 1:00 PM CT on MW Network

The powerful Colorado State offense struggled at times in their neutral-court tournament games the past week, but this return home should see a return to their high-scoring ways. This is still the 20th highest-scoring team in the country, and they should also be looking to put it on an in-state school here.

Northern Colorado is 247th in defensive rating this season despite mostly weak competition. A Rams team that’s 4th in true shooting percentage with the 9th-best offensive rating will be a rude awakening. Both teams also shoot a lot from deep, so I see that adding up to a lot of points here.

Tiny Nick is 460-357 ATS (+83.8 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.

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Photo credit: Kyle Robertson (Columbus Dispatch via USA TODAY Sports)

Locks MLB (0.25 Unit) Philadelphia Phillies/Atlanta Braves under 9 (-110): 6 PM CT on ESPN 2 words, Spencer Strider. Strider has been magnificent to start the season […]

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