Locks
NCAA Basketball (1 Unit) Villanova 1st Half -9.5 @ Pennsylvania (-110): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+
Because of a couple of close losses in their incredibly tough non-conference schedule, this Villanova team is flying a little bit under the radar. But they’re still one of the best teams in the country and love jumping on opponents early.
Instead of the big full game number, I’d rather back the Wildcats to get out to another sizable lead in this annual Philadelphia event. It’s exactly what they did to their other cross-town rival La Salle on Sunday, leading 42-17 at halftime, plus they led by 20 at the break in their previous win over a good Tennessee team. Villanova buries opponents under a barrage from deep, taking the 6th-most and making the 8th-most 3-pointers. That’s a recipe to jump on Penn early, as they’re 231st in opponent 3-point percentage.
The Quakers have trailed by double digits at half to both of their power conference opponents so far this season. Villanova is by far the best team they’ve faced and should put them in another sizable hole at the break tonight.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Little Rock/Colorado St. Over 149 (-110): 8:00 PM CT on MW Network
As long as this Colorado State squad is playing at home, I’ll continue treating them as an over team. I see them getting into another high-scoring game against a Little Rock team who has no problem playing fast.
Colorado State is now 3-0 to the over at home this season, with those games averaging 172.7 points. That’s due to an incredible offense as the Rams are the 4th-best shooting team in the country, are 6th-best from deep, and it adds up to them also being 4th in offensive efficiency. Tonight they get a Little Rock team that plays at the 48th-fastest pace in the country behind do-it-all forward Nikola Maric. They should be able to generate plenty of offense against a Rams team that’s 225th in defensive efficiency.
There’s also the underrated home-court advantage Colorado State has here of elevation wearing out visiting teams. That has a big impact on defensive effort and should help in getting this game over a relatively low total considering the situational spot.
Degenerates
NCAA Basketball Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Iowa St -28.5 (-110): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN+
I’ll admit that I did not expect to see my Cyclones doing this well or ranked in the AP poll for what was thought to be a rebuilding year. But I can’t ignore how well they’re playing, or the matchup here against a perennial doormat school.
Iowa State has only handed out one true beatdown this season, running out Grambling by 35 points. But this Pine Bluff team is truly awful, ranking 337th in offensive rating and 351st in defensive rating. I don’t see how they score against what’s been an excellent Cyclones defense, and that should allow ISU to pull away. It’s a lot of points, but if the Clones want to be a top-25 team they need to act like it and win games like this by wide margins.
Tiny Nick is 468-362 ATS (+86.6 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
