Locks
NFL (1 Unit) Dallas Cowboys Team Total Over 26.5 (-110): 7:20 PM CT on FOX
It’s time to stop worrying about a Dallas team that has dropped three of its last four games. The receiving weapons are back for the Cowboys and should light up a decimated New Orleans Saints defense.
Dak Prescott hasn’t had his full complement of top receivers since the first half of their Week 1 game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. With everyone back tonight I see them taking advantage of a Saints defense that has given up 29.6 PPG the past 5 weeks. That’s actually the exact per-game scoring average for the Cowboys this season despite some down performances in recent weeks.
The Saints are also dealing with a laundry list of injuries, particularly on defense. But they have been stout against the run this season, 3rd in the NFL in rush yards allowed. That tells me Prescott and the Cowboys will air it out tonight on the way to scoring the way we’re used to seeing.
Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): Cowboys 1st Quarter -0.5 (-110)
The Saints have not scored in the first quarter in four straight games. Read that sentence again. They’re actually dead last in the NFL in 1st quarter scoring at 2.2 PPG, while Dallas is 6th at 6.2 PPG. I’m absolutely amazed that this is a pick ‘em, especially considering that I see the reunited Cowboys receiving corps getting them out to a fast start tonight.
Degenerates
NCAA Basketball Lipscomb +14.5 @ Belmont (-110): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN+
This is a cross-town rivalry in Nashville, and for that scenario, the point spread here is far too big. That’s especially true given that Lipscomb has an incredible offense that can keep them in this game. The Bison are the 7th-best overall shooting team in the country and are the top 3-point shooting team.
Belmont is no slouch offensively as center Nick Muszynski is essentially unguardable, but I don’t see them being able to truly pull away from the hot Lipscomb shooters. These teams also have a common opponent in Dayton, who Lipscomb blew out but Belmont lost to. I see this game as more of a single-digit margin so I’ll gladly take this many points.
Tiny Nick is 468-362 ATS (+86.6 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
