Locks
NCAA Football (1 Unit) UT-San Antonio vs Western Kentucky -3 (-110): 6:00 PM CT on CBSSN
If it’s Friday night it must be Zappe hour. I’ve been loving Bailey Zappe and this Western Kentucky team all season, and I think they avenge an earlier loss to take the Conference USA title tonight.
The last loss for the Hilltoppers came 8 weeks ago to this UTSA team in a 52-46 shootout. Since then WKU has won 7 straight while going 6-1 ATS behind a vastly improved defense. WKU was allowing 38.4 PPG through that loss but are only allowing 18.8 PPG since, while their elite offense keeps getting better as well. Success for UTSA seems to have been too much for them, and an offense that was averaging 39.9 PPG has dropped to just 28 in the past 3 weeks.
These teams are on opposite trajectories, as I see the Hilltoppers peaking at just the right time. This was already a close matchup before WKU started putting it all together, and I just don’t see UTSA being able to keep up in this title game rematch.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Kansas -6.5 @ St. John’s (-110): 6:00 PM CT on FS1
Kansas’s shocking loss to Dayton last week is likely contributing to this number being lower than it should against a fraudulent St. John’s team.
According to KenPom metrics, the Red Storm have played the 3rd-easiest schedule in the country, so this should be a rude awakening. The choke job to Dayton aside, this Kansas team has all the talent they need to compete for a national title and should match up well against St. John’s tonight. St. John’s wants to play a fast style with havoc defense that looks to create turnovers, but Kansas is top-20 in taking care of the basketball.
If the Jayhawks can keep avoiding turnovers, they’ll be able to score easily in the half-court against the 109th-ranked defense for effective field goal rate. This Kansas team is in need of a statement game, and I see them getting it here against an overrated opponent.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Iowa/Purdue Over 158 (-110): 8:00 PM CT on BTN
It’s rare to get a matchup between the two best scoring offenses in the country, but that’s what we have here. It’s even rarer to see a total for such a matchup set this relatively low.
In both per-game scoring and offensive efficiency, Purdue and Iowa are the best in the country on the offensive end of the floor. It’s no surprise then that these teams are a combined 11-3 to the over this season, with the Hawkeyes also 6th in plus/minus to the total. But Iowa’s lack of defense has given them the 108th defensive rating against a truly weak schedule and allowed a game with glacial-slow Virginia to hit 149 points. A Boilermakers team that’s been wrecking everyone should continue its offensive onslaught against that suspect defense.
I’m looking to Purdue’s game against UNC – a similarly weak defensive team to Iowa – which got to 177 points as a barometer for this. Elite shooting and below-average defense should carry this one over a total I expected to be above the 160 mark.
NBA (0.5 Unit) Phoenix Suns/Golden State Warriors Under 216 (-110): 9:00 PM CT on ESPN
This is closer to where I expected the total to be for Tuesday’s meeting between these teams, and still would’ve taken the under for that game. With Devin Booker out for this rematch, I see both squads relying even more on their elite defenses.
Despite a 66-point outburst in the first quarter on Tuesday that game stayed well under the total, and I expect this game to be played much more like the other 3 quarters. Golden State should bounce back offensively, but they’re still a strong under team on an 8-2 under run, plus 8-4 to the under at home. The Warriors still have the best defensive rating in the league, and now don’t need to worry about Booker’s scoring ability.
Phoenix owns the 2nd-best defensive rating though, and it was obvious that their length bothered the Warriors on Tuesday. It’s the new NBA, featuring the league’s best defenses, with one of the best scoring threats on the bench, so I like another under between these teams.
Degenerates
NCAA Basketball Charleston/Furman Over 161 (-110): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+
Charleston is the fastest-paced team in the country, fully embracing the style of new coach Pat Kelsey. That style has made things very difficult for them defensively though, and they should give up plenty to this Furman team. The Paladins take the 6th-most shots from deep and make them at the 18th-best rate in the country.
Combining that level of shooting with the up-tempo style of the Cougars should make for a high-scoring affair. Charleston’s shooting doesn’t always cooperate, but these are both top-50 scoring offenses that should put on a show that justifies this high total.
Tiny Nick is 471-363 ATS (+88.3 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
