Locks
NFL (0.5 Unit) New England Patriots/Buffalo Bills Under 41 (-110): 7:15 PM CT on ESPN
This is all about the weather conditions in Buffalo tonight and the type of game that’s likely to create.
Shy of freezing rain, the most important weather condition that contributes to unders is high wind. That’s what is in store tonight with sustained winds of 25-35 MPH and gusts over 40 MPH. Those conditions are likely to force both teams into conservative play-calling and a lot of running the football. That’s been the recipe on the road in general for the Patriots though, as highly-touted Mac Jones only has 3 touchdowns with 3 interceptions in his 5 road starts, plus a QBR that’s 15 points lower than at home.
It’s also important to note how strong the Patriots defense is right now, only allowing 6.5 PPG the last 4 weeks, plus you don’t want to be one-dimensional against Bill Belichick. The look-ahead total in this one was 48, showing how much these weather conditions have impacted the market. I agree with the move and am seeing a very low-scoring game here.
NBA (0.5 Unit) San Antonio Spurs/Phoenix Suns Under 216.5 (-110): 8:00 PM CT on Bally Sports AZ
The Spurs are a hot team right now, winners of four straight behind some excellent defense. That should create a low-scoring battle with a Suns team that’s excellent defensively and weakened offensively.
San Antonio has only allowed 94.2 PPG during their four-game win streak, giving them the 3rd-best defensive efficiency mark in the NBA during that stretch. They also have the 2nd-best defensive efficiency mark in road games this season, leading them to be the best road under team at 8-2-1 with the best plus/minus to the total at -12.2 PPG. That strong defense will have the added advantage of not worrying about Devin Booker, who is still out for the Suns.
This Phoenix defense probably doesn’t get enough credit though for being 2nd in the NBA in defensive efficiency and is only allowing 103.9 PPG at home. This one should be a defensive struggle the whole way, so I’ll take the under on what’s a fairly high total these days.
Degenerates
NCAA Basketball Alcorn State @ Houston -32 (-110): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN+
This Houston team appears to be on a mission right now, consistently wrecking teams since their lone loss 2 weeks ago. Since then they’ve beaten Oregon by 29, NW State by 41, and Bryant by 67 points. If they feel like it, the Cougars can put a similar beatdown on Alcorn State tonight.
While the Braves don’t have any losses by this big a margin on the season, they still profile as one of the worst teams in the country, particularly on offense. A team that’s 345th in true shooting percentage and 322nd in offensive rating won’t keep up if Houston keeps the pedal down. It’s a lot of points, but easily attainable for the Cougars if they continue to have no shame in handing out beatings.
Tiny Nick is 475-366 ATS (+87.1 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
