Locks
NCAA Basketball (1 Unit) Furman/North Carolina Over 154 (-110): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN2
This matchup has all the makings of a defense-optional game and also features the best over team in the country.
Furman is one of only two teams that haven’t cashed an under, coming into this game with a 7-0-2 record to the over while eclipsing the total by 11.3 points on average. The Paladins also get into higher-scoring games more often away from home, as their road games average 10 points more than at home. North Carolina should be able to easily dictate the pace of this game and make it their usual up-tempo style. That should create a high-scoring game between two teams who are both below 200th in defensive rating but top-50 in offensive rating.
It will also be raining three-pointers in this one, as Furman is 15th in 3-point percentage while UNC is 6th. In a fast-paced game with excellent shooting, I definitely want to be holding an over ticket.
NBA (0.75 Unit) Golden State Warriors -2 First Half @ NY Knicks (-110): 6:30 PM CT on TNT
One to tie, two to pass, and I’m pretty confident we’ll see Steph Curry get the three-point record early tonight at Madison Square Garden. That should contribute to the Warriors building an early lead against a Knicks team that’s been awful in the first half recently.
The Knicks are 3-6 against this number in their past 9 first halves, with an average halftime deficit of 7.3 points. They’re also 24th in the NBA in 3-point field goal defense when playing at home. A Warriors team that takes and makes the 2nd-most shots from deep should exploit that weakness, especially with them trying to get Curry the record.
The Knicks will also be without RJ Barrett for this game, further limiting their ability to keep up with a Warriors team on a mission. I can also see Curry being rested for a lot of this game once he clinches the record, so the first half is where I want to fade this struggling Knicks team.
NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Louisiana @ Houston -21.5 (-110): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN+
One thing I’ve learned over the years is that defeat and frustration do not sit well with Houston coach Kelvin Sampson. After an ugly scene to end their game at Alabama on Saturday night, the Cougars are in a spot where they’ve typically shown no mercy.
In the games following last year’s three regular-season losses, Houston rebounded with wins by an average 39.3 point margin. After their previous loss this season, the Cougars won their next four games by 42.3 points on average.
Houston has an opponent in Louisiana that should be easy for them to put another beating on. The Ragin’ Cajuns want to play fast to mask their 297th-ranked shooting percentage, but Houston’s excellent defense should slow it down and force Louisiana to struggle in the half court. Louisiana has only played one power-conference team this season, losing by 32 points at Indiana. I expect a motivated and angry Houston team to produce a similarly wide margin tonight.
Degenerates
NCAA Basketball Santa Clara/Boise St Under 139.5 (-110): 8:00 PM CT on CBS Sports Network
I really can’t explain what happened to this Santa Clara team, but their hot start offensively has gone cold in a hurry. They’re still the 16th-best shooting team in the country, but the Broncos have scored 9.1 points below their season average over the past 6 games.
Combine those struggles with a Boise State team that plays at the 301st pace in the country and buckets will be tough to come by tonight. Boise is also below 200th in just about every offensive category, so they’ll rely on a defense that’s 17th in efficiency to control this game. None of that adds up to points in my mind, so I’ll gladly take the under here.
Tiny Nick is 487-371 ATS (+89.1 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
