Locks
NBA (1 Unit) Charlotte Hornets/San Antonio Spurs Over 227.5 (-110): 7:30 PM CT on Bally Sports SE
The dramatic trend of unders in the NBA has started to come back around with more overs cashing recently. Two teams here who are already strong to the over should help with that realignment.
Charlotte is still the best over team in the league overall, with a record of 17-11-1 to the over. Meanwhile, San Antonio has been crushing the over at home, with an 11-2-1 record and plus-8.0 average margin against the total.
The offensive strengths for these teams are also perfect for exploiting the other’s defensive weaknesses. Charlotte takes and makes a ton of threes, and will face a Spurs defense that’s 22nd in opponent three-point percentage. Conversely, the Spurs thrive from inside the arc as they get more points off two-pointers than any other NBA team, and Charlotte is 30th in opponent two-point percentage.
These teams also want to play very fast, as the Hornets play at the 4th and Spurs the 6th-fastest tempo. With these teams constantly exploiting weak defenses at a quick pace, this total is appropriately high and should create another over.
NBA (0.5 Unit) Washington Wizards/Sacramento Kings Over 225 (-110): 9:00 PM CT on NBCS-CA
It’s taken a while, but this Wizards team is starting to look more like last season’s bad defensive club and trend more to the over. Getting pulled into a fast-paced game by a Kings team that loves to run should create another over for them here.
Washington is not a team that has played particularly fast this season, but recent defensive struggles have resulted in a 7-2-1 run to the over. The Kings meanwhile have fully embraced playing at the fastest pace possible since firing Luke Walton. That’s resulted in their past 10 games averaging 236.7 points and a 7-3 record to the over. That style has dropped their defense to 27th in efficiency, so a Wizards team that struggles to score at times will have a much easier time putting up points.
The Wizards don’t often see a total lined this high, so odds makers seem to expect that Sacramento will dictate the style of this game. That’s good news for over bettors as I see poor defense being the story here to get this over the total.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Akron/Wright State Over 147 (-110): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+
Bad defense and a frenetic pace should define this game, particularly from Wright State as they play their first D1 home game.
The Raiders have one of the worst defenses in the country, allowing 83.9 PPG against their 7 D1 opponents. That puts them 353rd nationally in points allowed, 332nd in defensive efficiency, and 325th in opponent effective field goal rate. Combine that with a pace that’s 10th-fastest in the country and you get a team that is 6-1 over this total on the season. Akron’s style is much different, but it’s important to note that the only other time they played a team that’s top-70 in pace it created an 88-86 game against Marshall.
Akron’s defensive metrics are inflated by a weak schedule, and they will have trouble slowing the three-headed Raiders monster of Grant Basile, Tanner Holden, and Trey Calvin. I see Wright State being able to dictate the pace of this game while their awful defense struggles again, easily pushing this game over the total.
NCAA Basketball (1 Unit) Northern Colorado @ Arizona -24.5 (-110): 8:00 PM CT on Pac12 Network
We’re probably approaching the top of the market for Arizona as everyone starts to appreciate just how good they are. But the Wildcats are simply incredible, especially on their home floor in the non-conference schedule, and I expect another blowout here.
Every home game for Arizona has seen them run out their opponent by more than tonight’s line, with an average 42-point margin of victory, 5-0 ATS record, and plus-19.5 point margin against the number. Those are just incredible numbers for a team playing perhaps the best basketball in the country. I see a favorable matchup for them here as their elite offense takes on a Northern Colorado team that’s 294th in defensive efficiency.
The Bears have only faced one truly good team this season and were held to just 49 points by Texas. If they struggle in a similar way tonight against a Wildcats defense that’s 4th in efficiency, the offensive onslaught from Arizona will bury them. The Wildcats have no shame in running teams out, and I see them doing it again tonight so lay the points here.
Degenerates
NBA LA Clippers @ Utah Jazz -9 (-110): 9:00 PM CT on ESPN
This play is heavily contingent on the health of Paul George, who has been out for three straight games and is questionable tonight. The Clippers have been impressive without him, winning those three games against moderate competition. But Utah is on a serious roll right now and should be able to blow out the Clippers here.
The Jazz have been a wrecking ball after an ugly home loss to the Pelicans, winning the seven games since by an average 18.7 point margin. Their top-rated offense should be able to run away from a Clippers team that often struggles to score. This current line tells me George is not going to play, but monitor his status and the line movement before jumping in.
Tiny Nick is 487-374 ATS (+86.6 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
