Locks
NFL (0.5 Unit) Minnesota Vikings -1 First Quarter @ Chicago Bears (-110): 7:15 PM CT on ESPN
The obvious throughline of this Vikings season is the blown leads in so many games. That shows the inability of this team to adapt. But for betting purposes, we shouldn’t be ignoring how they start.
Credit to the coaching staff for scripting good offensive plays and defensive packages that allow this team to start fast. According to the DVOA metrics, Minnesota is 3rd offensively and 5th defensively in first quarters this season. That’s allowed them to lead after the first quarter in five of their past seven games. Meanwhile, the Bears have been one of the worst-performing teams early in games, particularly their offense as it ranks 30th in first quarters this season.
The personnel advantage for the Vikings due to COVID is well-documented and should give Minnesota even more of an edge early on against backups. Instead of wondering how they’ll blow another lead, I’ll just count on the Vikings to have another strong start here.
Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit) Dalvin Cook Over 16.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Chicago has been having a lot of trouble keeping running backs from racking up receiving yards, with the lead back of their past 5 opponents averaging 26 yards per game. Cook has already eclipsed this total 6 times on the season, averages 22 receiving YPG, and is off his biggest game of the year. The Vikings are at their best when they get Cook to do most of the work, so I see him contributing enough in the passing game to get over this prop.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Purdue Team Total Over 91.5 (-110): 6:00 PM CT on BTN
The best offense in the country, meet one of the worst defenses in the country – it’s really that simple.
The Boilermakers are 1st in offensive efficiency, 2nd in effective field goal rate, and 3rd in points per game. Meanwhile, Incarnate Word ranks 350th in defensive efficiency, 357th in opponent effective field goal rate, and 341st in points allowed. That’s an incredibly stark contrast made even worse by the fact that Incarnate Word has a strength of schedule also ranked 351st nationally.
Purdue is finally back home after three games away from Mackey Arena, where they average 91.8 points per game. They’re also 5-0 over this number against non-conference opponents at home. After some recent offensive struggles, the Boilermakers will be eager to get back to their high-scoring ways and should have no problem against probably the worst defense they’ve faced all year.
NBA (0.5 Unit) Sacramento Kings/Golden State Warriors Under 222.5 (-110): 9:00 PM CT on NBCS-CA
There are far too many key offensive contributors missing for both teams in this game for me to believe that we’ll see many points. There are also plenty of trends suggesting that this game will go under the total.
The Warriors will be without starters Jordan Poole and Andrew Wiggins due to COVID protocols, key players who are 2nd and 3rd on the team in scoring. However, Sacramento is also down several starters and important role players, and will now face the highest-rated defense in the NBA on a back-to-back. Golden State thrives with a rest advantage and has cashed the under in that situation 7 of 8 times. The Warriors are also 10-5-1 to the under at home this season, 18-7-1 to the under as a favorite, and 4-1 after a loss which they suffered in Toronto on Saturday.
I’m also anticipating a slow pace here, with the Warriors off a long road trip and the Kings having played a high-scoring game last night. These teams at full strength combined for 226 points in their previous meeting, but I see a much lower-scoring game with so many absences tonight.
Degenerates
NCAA Basketball South Carolina St/Citadel Under 156.5 (-110): 4:00 PM CT on ESPN+
Anyone who followed me last college basketball season knows the run I had on Citadel unders, and I’m seeing another here. This number is based on perception and a previous result, neither of which are telling an accurate story in my opinion. Yes, these teams played to 170 points last month, but it took overtime to get over today’s total.
Citadel simply isn’t playing at the frenetic pace that it has the reputation for, down to 98th in the country. SC State plays extremely fast but is 336th in shooting percentage so pace doesn’t matter if shots don’t drop. These teams combined are just 9-8 over this total, and I’m fading public perception here.
NBA Charlotte Hornets/Utah Jazz Over 236.5 (-110): 8:00 PM CT on SportsNet RM
This is one of the highest totals I’ve seen in a long time, but I still think it has a reasonable chance to go over. Charlotte is simply getting run over lately, allowing 123.8 PPG in their past 12 games. They own the worst statistical defense in the NBA by a wide margin, and now have to face one of the best statistical offenses in Utah.
I’m also looking at the high volume and percentage of 3-pointers in this game. Charlotte takes the 4th-most threes and makes them at the highest percentage, while the Jazz take the most and make them at the 3rd-highest percentage. Combine that with the fast pace and awful defense of the Hornets and this should look more like the high-scoring NBA of last season.
Tiny Nick is 495-380 ATS (+86.9 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
