Locks
NFL (0.5 Unit) George Kittle Over 70.5 Receiving Yards (-110): 7:20 PM CT on NFL Network
It’s tough for me to pick a side in this game, especially with the number sitting squarely on 3 points and not moving. If I had to lean one direction it would be to San Francisco though, in large part because of how well this offense is rolling behind George Kittle.
The 49ers’ tight end has been uncoverable the past 3 weeks, averaging 9.3 receptions and 141.7 yards per game. For those who weren’t math majors, that average is double tonight’s prop. Even on the season as a whole, Kittle is averaging 77.3 yards despite some quiet games.
Tennessee is considerably better against the run than the pass, ranking 2nd in run stop win rate but 20th against the pass. Look for the 49ers to keep it going through the air tonight, leaning on their elite weapon at tight end, who’s a matchup nightmare for everyone right now.
NBA (0.5 Unit) Milwaukee Bucks -3.5 @ Dallas Mavericks (-110): 7:30 PM CT on NBATV
Giannis Antetokounmpo might be in COVID protocols for Milwaukee, but I really don’t think it will matter against a decimated Dallas team.
Luka Doncic is among 6 Mavericks players in COVID protocols who are slated to miss this game, along with questionable tags for others including Kristaps Porzingis. Even without the Greek Freak, the Bucks have plenty of firepower on their roster to handle one of the most short-handed teams in the NBA.
But Giannis being on the shelf and the Bucks having played last night is holding this line down. Milwaukee has far more starters and 2nd string players available though, and I’ll count on them to cover a small number against the bottom of the barrel for Dallas.
NBA (0.25 Unit) Minnesota Timberwolves @ Utah Jazz -4.5 1st Quarter (-110): 8:00 PM CT on BSN
The discrepancy in roster health and availability is far too wide between these teams right now. This sets up as a bad spot for Minnesota, especially against a Jazz team that jumps on opponents early.
In the loss at Dallas on Tuesday, the far end of the Wolves bench showed why they usually stay down there, and the injury/COVID issues continue to pile up for them. By contrast, the Jazz are one of the healthiest rosters in the NBA right now and have been off since Monday. That should help them work out some bugs that have led to a couple of disappointing losses. This team really starts strong though, winning 7 of their past 8 first quarters at home with a 7.5-point lead average.
I shudder to think what names we might see defaulting into the starting lineup tonight for Minnesota. Envisioning the first wave of subs is even worse. Utah might blow Minnesota out like the 32-point drubbing they laid on them two weeks ago, but I definitely think they’ll strike early with such a massive personnel advantage.
NBA (0.75 Unit) Memphis Grizzlies/Golden State Warriors Under 216.5 (-110): 9:00 PM CT on NBCS-CA
As long as oddsmakers keep posting moderate totals like this for Warriors games, I’ll keep taking the under. It’s really that simple with a trend this strong.
It’s now 70% of Warriors games where under tickets have cashed, making them by far the best under team in the league. It shouldn’t be any surprise since they’re allowing the fewest points in the league, have posted the best defensive efficiency mark, and lead the NBA in both categories at home as well.
The Grizzlies come into this game on a 7-3 under run themselves and have a better statistical defense than their reputation implies. Let’s also not forget the first meeting, where even in overtime two healthy rosters combined for just 105 points. Both squads are missing key contributors tonight, and I see that getting another Warriors under to cash.
Degenerates
NBA Oklahoma City Thunder +15 @ Phoenix Suns (-110): 8:00 PM CT on BSAZ
I hate betting against the Suns with how they’re playing right now, especially at home where they’ve won by more than this number in 3 straight. But there’s also something about this Thunder team that can’t be ignored. OKC has covered 6 of 8, winning 3 straight against fairly strong competition. At 19-11, they actually have the 3rd-best ATS record in the league.
Phoenix has been strong against the number themselves, but rarely have they been a double-digit favorite, and this is by far the biggest number they’ve laid. Count me as a little skeptical that this hot and confident Thunder team will get rolled by such a wide margin tonight.
Tiny Nick is 499-386 ATS (+84.3 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
