Locks
NBA (0.5 Unit) Los Angeles Lakers @ Memphis Grizzlies -6 (-110): 7:00 PM CT on NBATV
The Lakers find themselves in a tough spot tonight, getting no favors from the schedule while also being extremely shorthanded. They have to play a Memphis team that’s getting their groove back with the return of Ja Morant, which should extend LA’s woes.
The Lakers managed to stop the bleeding of a 5-game losing streak last night, but now have to go right back to work against a rested Grizzlies team. You actually don’t want any part of LA after a win, as they’re just 4-12 ATS in that spot. Last night’s game was a fast-paced and high possessions affair too, not something this depleted Lakers roster can afford right now. That’s especially true against a Memphis team that has the 2nd-best ATS plus/minus when they have a rest advantage.
The Grizzlies have also already handled the full-strength version of the Lakers at home this season, a game they won by 13 even without Morant in the lineup. This number has steamed up from the opener, but I still like it here given the trajectory of these teams and the spot we’re getting them in.
NCAA Basketball (1 Unit) Missouri @ Kentucky -20 (-110): 6:00 PM CT on SEC Network
This situation does not shape up well for Missouri, a team that’s been atrocious both away from home and against quality competition.
Missouri’s last 4 games either on the road or at a neutral site have resulted in losses by 23, 21, 37, and 25 points, failing to cover in all of them. Two of those opponents, Florida State and Liberty, aren’t even very good, so this Tigers team is really down this year. Missouri has dropped into the 300’s nationally for just about every shooting metric, and won’t be able to keep up with a Kentucky team that is now up to 7th in offensive efficiency.
Kentucky has also shown no mercy to bad teams, winning their home games by an average of 27.1 points. The Wildcats have a big advantage in size, shooting, rebounding, and just about every other category, so I see another blowout coming for Missouri here.
NCAA Football (1 Unit) Oregon vs. Oklahoma -6.5 (-110): 8:15 PM CT on ESPN
It’s the Our Coach Bolted Bowl here as both programs come into this game with temporary head coaches. But I give that edge plus the personnel edge to Oklahoma here, and the Sooners should run away with this one.
Oklahoma gets Bob Stoops coming back to the sidelines for this game, and the beloved former Sooner coach is hungry for a storybook ending here. I think he gets it as his team is more talented to begin with, plus they have the significant personnel edge. Oregon has been hit hard by opt-outs and COVID absences, seriously depleting their roster. A lot of those are impacting a formerly strong defense, and I don’t see them being able to slow what’s still a top-tier Oklahoma offense in scoring and yards per play.
I’ve also talked about Oregon QB Anthony Brown’s struggles away from home, and this game being played in San Antonio shapes up as more of a home game for Oklahoma. A healthy Ducks team saw 2 of its last 3 games end up in beatdowns by Utah, so the skeleton crew should be in trouble here. The Sooners will be up for this one behind Stoops and roll here.
NCAA Football (0.25 Unit) Clemson/Iowa State Over 44 (-110): 4:45 PM CT on ESPN
Essentially this bet boils down to “because I feel like it” combined with needing some action while I watch my Cyclones play.
The easy way to look at this game is to see two extremely good defenses and think it will be a low-scoring defensive clash. But for as good as those defenses are, these teams are a combined 17-7 over today’s total. The much-maligned Clemson offense got things rolling late in the season behind RB Will Shipley, scoring 30-plus points their past 5 games. Iowa State will be without top RB Breece Hall, but that should allow Brock Purdy to throw more to his underrated receiving weapons and create a faster-paced game.
I also question the motivation here for Clemson, as the Cheez-It Bowl is a far cry from their usual postseason experience of making the CFP every season. That might cause the effort to be lacking, particularly on defense, and I think it contributes to getting over this very low total.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 505-393 ATS (+84.6 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
