Locks
NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) Arizona State Team Total Under 17.5 (-110): 9:30 PM CT on ESPN
This is all about a Wisconsin defense that is fully staffed and has had a month to get right. That elite unit should be able to hold down an inconsistent Arizona State offense that struggles when it’s one-dimensional.
Arizona State is one of just a few teams that average more rushing yards than passing per game. They’re heavily reliant on RB Rachaad White and the legs of QB Jayden Daniels to make their offense work. But tonight’s opponent simply can’t be run on, with Wisconsin owning the best run defense in the country and best overall yards per game defense. If that forces the erratic Daniels to try to produce through the air, the Sun Devils will be in trouble here.
Wisconsin held 8 of their 12 opponents under this total on the season, and the times they didn’t were more about turnover luck than anything. Defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard is one of the best in the business, and with plenty of time to prepare I see the Badgers defense having another excellent night.
Degenerates
NCAA Basketball Chicago State @ Grand Canyon -21.5 (-110): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN+
Fade Chicago State. That’s it, that’s the handicap. Both teams are opening WAC play in this game, and it should be another blowout for Grand Canyon over a terrible team. The Antelopes have no shame in demolishing the worst teams in the country, winning by 27 against Prairie View and 47 against MS Valley State earlier this year.
The Cougars are truly all-around awful, ranking 348th in offensive rating and 323rd in defensive rating. GCU has a sneaky good defense with a lot of athleticism, so I see them running away here by 25 or more.
NCAA Basketball Idaho State @ Montana -10 (-110): 8:00 PM CT on ESPN+
Idaho State has been one of the better fades during the past few seasons in Big Sky conference play. Year over year they just haven’t been able to score, and with the 313th shooting percentage in the country that’s not going to change any time soon.
Montana has a pretty strong defense that will continue to hold the Bengals down, especially in what should be a slow and defensive-oriented game. The Grizzlies have won every home game so far this season by double digits, and I expect that to continue here.
Tiny Nick is 507-395 ATS (+85.7 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
