Locks
No locks today.
Degenerates
NCAA Basketball – Iowa State +15 @ Kansas (-110): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN
I promise this is not an ISU grad homer pick, hear me out. The Cyclones are finally getting healthier, and the return of forward Javan Johnson has been a big boost to their interior presence. But this team has always been surprisingly good at staying inside the number during Big 12 play, with three straight covers and a 5-0 ATS record when catching double digits, including against top conference teams Baylor, Texas, Oklahoma, and West Virginia twice.
As for Kansas, this is a lull in their schedule before finishing with three extremely tough games so I’d expect the Jayhawks to be playing with slightly less urgency. At just 4-5 ATS as a home favorite, KU is not a team you’ve wanted to back this season, and off a big win over Oklahoma St., they should be happy to just get a win.
Clones keep it (relatively) close and sneak in the back door here.
NCAA Basketball – SE Missouri St. @ Murray St. -12 (-110): 7:30 PM CT on ESPN+
We just saw this matchup ten days ago at SE Missouri St., and I think we get a repeat of that result in this one. That 17-point Murray St. win was part of a tough five-game stretch for the Racers where they’ve performed well, going 4-1 ATS but losing two games outright to the two teams atop the conference standings.
That game was part of a 2-7 ATS run that the Redhawks are on, and it was indicative of the mismatch between these teams. With the 12th best field goal percentage in the country, it’s easy for Murray St. to run away from teams like SEMO who is 254th in offensive efficiency, and I expect the Racers to shoot well again in this rematch.
A five-point discount in this spread from the previous game’s result feels like a bargain, so I’ll trust Murray State here to keep it rolling.
NCAA Basketball – Morehead St. -7.5 @ Tennessee St. (-110): 8:00 PM CT on ESPN+
Oddsmakers and the market still haven’t caught up to how good this Morehead State team really is. They’ve now won 11 in a row straight up, are 11-3 ATS in conference games, and are just three points away from being on what would be a ridiculous 12-0 ATS run.
Yet they’re still only laying single digits against the last-place team in the Ohio Valley, a Tennessee State squad that has covered once in its last eight games. Most of those have been against the weaker OVC teams as well, and when facing top conference teams the Tigers have lost those six games by an average of 14.2 points.
Morehead State has covered every single OVC road game and won the last four by at least 14 points, so I expect another double-digit Eagles win in this one.
NCAA Basketball – UNLV @ Boise State -9.5 (-110): 9:00 PM CT on CBS Sports Network
Boise State is in desperate need of a bounce back, and this looks like a great spot to get one. It’s also an excellent opportunity to buy low on the Broncos after they dropped three of four on their road trip against very good teams. Being back home is a big key for the Broncos, as all five of their conference home games have been double-digit wins.
This is still an excellent defensive team, 28th in defensive efficiency, and when compared to a UNLV team that’s 278th in that category you find the reason why this is a sizable mismatch. A hungry Boise team at home for only the second game in a month and in a tight conference race should be dangerous here, so I’ll roll with the Broncos to get another comfortable home win.
Tiny Nick is 156-91 ATS (+60.5 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
