NBA – Mavs/Pelicans Over 232 (-110): 6:30 PM CT on ESPN
As I’ve said a couple times this past week, the Mavs are averaging 250-plus points in their last five games. The Pelicans can also play fast when Lonzo Ball, Brandon Ingram, and Zion Williamson are hitting their shots so I’m going to keep riding the over train for at least one more night, especially a prime time game on ESPN.
NCAA Basketball – Detroit Mercy @ Cleveland State -3 (-110): 8:00PM CT on ESPNU
Another Friday, another undervaluing of this Cleveland State team. I understand it to some extent as the metrics do not suggest this would be a 14-5 team with a 13-5-1 ATS record, so modeling systems turn out short spreads and the Vikings keep covering – often not in the prettiest fashion but we’ll take it.
I think this should actually be a much more comfortable cover for them, as Detroit comes in overvalued having won 7 of 8 against teams from the bottom of the conference, most of them very close games. The Titans rely on volume 3-point shooting as they get up the 19th most shots from deep, but at the expense of defense as they’re 293rd in defensive efficiency.
Against a Cleveland State team who is 17th in 3-point field goal defense, the Vikings will take them out of their preferred style on their way to another Friday win and cover.
NCAA Basketball – UW-Milwaukee @ Wright State -16 (-110): 6:00PM CT on ESPN3
Exactly four weeks ago, Wright State lost a game to Cleveland State that was part of a 1-3 stretch that simply looked ugly. The Raiders seem to have taken that personally because they’re 7-0 since, 6-1 ATS, and all but one has been a 20-plus point win with an average margin of 25.4 points.
With Grant Basile, Tanner Holden, and Loudon Love, this is easily the most talented team in the Horizon, and the most dominant when they decide to be. Milwaukee has had its moments this season, but have been on a 2-6 ATS run over that same four week stretch and were just blown out in two home games last weekend. We may be nearing the top of the market with Wright State so I’m buying them with caution here, but this team is not shy about running it up so I’ll roll with them until that trend stops.
Tiny Nick is 156-91 ATS (+60.5 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.