Locks
NCAA Basketball – Bradley @ Missouri St -2.5 (-110): 5:00 PM CT on ESPN+
If Missouri State is playing anyone in the MVC not named Drake or Loyola, it’s an excellent betting opportunity. The Bears are 0-4 both straight up and ATS against those two conference leaders, but 8-1 both straight up and ATS against everyone else.
Bradley comes into this game off of only their second conference road win and 8 of their 13 MVC games this season have been single-digit margins, which is one of the reasons I think we’re seeing such a short number here.
The Braves have really struggled to find consistent offense recently, and a Missouri State team that’s excellent defensively at home should handle business here.
NCAA Basketball – Auburn +3 @ Kentucky (-110): 12:00 PM CT on CBS
This is a gut pick based off of how bad Kentucky has been this season. This opened at Auburn -2 so to be able to get 3 points on this spread is a bargain compared to the opening spread.
If Auburn’s Sharife Cooper can dictate the pace of this one, it’s going to be a long day for Kentucky, who probably can’t wait for this nightmare of a season to end. Even if this one is close, Kentucky has had a very hard time closing out close games with eight of their losses coming by five or fewer.
Roll with the Tigers here in what should be a good ol’ fashioned SEC battle.
NCAA Basketball – Texas A&M-CC/Abilene Christian Over 132.5: 4:00 PM CT on ESPN+
This is an opportunity to take advantage of the metrics doing too much to dictate the number. A&M Corpus Christi is really bad offensively over the course of the season, ranking 331st in offensive efficiency. Meanwhile, Abilene Christian is elite defensively as the 2nd best team in defensive efficiency.
Looks like an easy under bet given those numbers, but that’s not what the trends have borne out. Abilene has discovered their offense, ranking 17th over their last three games at 1.139 points per possession, and they’re actually 7-1 to the over in conference games including six straight. One of those was on Monday against this A&M-CC team as they combined for 151 points, and the Islanders are also strong to the over at 6-2 in conference games.
With the way Abilene has been running it up on teams lately (minimum 75 points over their last six) this deflated total should be easy to reach.
NCAA Basketball – Arkansas @ Missouri -2.5 (-110): 3:00 PM CT on ESPN2
I’m a little confused by this line and have to go with what feels like should be a comfortable Missouri win. I think Arkansas is a little overvalued in their market perception after knocking off Kentucky to snap an 8-game losing streak to the Wildcats, a game that was essentially handed to them late.
All of the Razorback wins over the last month have come against the bottom half of the SEC, and now they’re traveling to face a team they’ve already lost to by 13 points at home. Missouri is probably undervalued here coming off an ugly loss at Ole Miss, but the trend of this Tigers team has been emotional wins followed by bad losses and then strong bounce backs.
They should continue that here against an Arkansas team in a flat spot, and this short of a line looks like easy pickings.
Degenerates
NCAA Basketball – Idaho @ Idaho St. -10.5 (-110): 1:00 PM
By a whole lot of measures, Idaho is objectively one of the worst teams in college basketball. On offense the Vandals are 333rd in points per game and 330th in points per possession. Defense is just as bad, 322nd in points allowed and 339th in defensive efficiency.
It also really looks like this winless team has packed it in for the season, as they’ve dropped their last eight games by a minimum margin of 14 points and an average of 21.3 points.
Idaho State has an outside shot at the Big Sky title, and with a defense that allows the 38th fewest points in the country and star guard Tarik Cool, they know they need to dominate this weak competition. The Bengals enjoyed beating up on their in-state rival Thursday by 26 points, and should cruise again here.
Tiny Nick is 156-91 ATS (+60.5 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
