Locks
NBA – Wolves/Raptors Over 226 (-110): 7:00 PM CT on FSN
The Minnesota Timberwolves beat the Toronto Raptors 116-112 less than a week ago, so this one is pretty simple to me. I say it often but the Wolves struggle immensely on the defensive end while also maintaining a pretty good pace on the offensive end.
Somehow the Raptors only scored 112 and shot 30% from three while losing because of a Pascal Siakam missed layup. That game still went over and I don’t see this one slowing down in any way.
Karl-Anthony Towns Over 22.5 Points (EVEN):
I know this sounds like a homer pick, but look if you look back at my track record, the Wolves have been a big piece of my success. Towns is officially back and ready for another big showing after putting up 30 against the Los Angeles Lakers last time out.
Roll with KAT in a game Minnesota absolutely needs him to show up in if they’re going to have any chance to win another one against Toronto.
Degenerates
NCAA Basketball – Toledo/Buffalo Over 163 (-110): 8:00 PM CT on ESPN2
This is a very high total, but there is reason to like the game to get over this big number. This should mostly hinge on possessions meeting efficiency, as Buffalo has the 9th most possessions per game, which will add possessions for Toledo (1.113 points per possession, No. 9 in the country).
I’m also looking at a Buffalo team that commits the 30th most fouls in college basketball, and with Toledo’s 14th best free throw percentage both scoring and total possessions will get another boost. This Bulls team is fun to watch and can score on anybody, dropping 87 in regulation on Syracuse early this season, so in a fast-paced game that will likely be close I want the over.
And despite such a high number, early sharp action has been exclusively on the over as well so I’m happy to side with the smart money here.
NCAA Basketball – South Dakota St. @ North Dakota St. (PK): 7:30 PM CT on ESPN3
There are a few reasons why I think this is a trouble spot for the Jackrabbits here. It starts with the loss of Noah Freidel, 2nd in scoring and 3rd in assists on this team, who opted out of the rest of the season.
It will be tough for a perimeter-oriented offense that’s 5th in 3-point shooting to lose 26% of their production from beyond the arc. South Dakota State also struggles in first leg games, only 2-2 straight up in these spots. Meanwhile, North Dakota State is 6-0 straight up and 4-2 ATS in first leg games.
I think NDSU will be able to slow this game to their preferred snail’s pace (317th in the country) as SDSU adjusts to the loss of Freidel. The early season matchup was a 2-point Jackrabbits win with Freidel in the lineup, so I think the Bison prevail this time in what should be another close one.
NBA – Thunder +10.5 @ Bucks (-110): 6:00 PM CT
The Milwaukee Bucks have been miserable without Jrue Holiday this year. In their last matchup with the Oklahoma City Thunder they took a loss without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander playing, who will be back for tonight unlike Holiday.
The Thunder are also 11-4 ATS on the road on the season despite their record. Milwaukee is coming off of a bad loss last night that they may want to avenge or else I would have this in the locks category but roll with OKC with the points.
NCAA Basketball – Cal Baptist +10 @ Grand Canyon (-110): 8:00 PM on ESPN3
This is strictly a play on the zig-zag trend that impacts these teams in opposite ways. Grand Canyon is definitely the best team in the WAC, but they don’t play like it in these first leg games of their doubleheaders. While they’re 3-0 in those spots, it’s been all single-digit wins for the Antelopes, giving this double-digit spread plenty of value.
Their second leg games have all been double-digit wins though, with an average improvement of 14.7 points. The reverse trend is true for Cal Baptist as the Lancers are 4-1 in first legs but 1-4 in rematches, with an average margin shift of 9.8 points. It also seems sharp money has figured out this trend and is supporting the Lancers here, so I’ll back that pattern in this game and look to be on Grand Canyon in tomorrow’s rematch at hopefully a discounted price.
Tiny Nick is 165-98 ATS (+62.8 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
