Locks
NCAA Basketball – Texas Tech/Oklahoma St. Over 138 (-110): 8:00 PM CT on ESPN
I think this total is reflecting strong defensive performances by Oklahoma St. in their last two games, holding the weak offenses of Kansas St. and Iowa St. to 60 and 58 points, respectively. But when playing Big 12 teams not named Kansas St. or Iowa St., the Cowboys are 10-0 over this particular total, including an 82-77 OT win over this Red Raiders team.
Tech looked sluggish on Saturday at Kansas after having three games postponed, but this is still a strong and underrated offense (52nd in the nation in points per possession). They have excellent scorers in Mac McClung and Terrance Shannon Jr., both of whom should get back on track in this national TV spot against the Big 12’s leading scorer, Cade Cunningham.
This number is just a little too low for what projects to be a tightly-contested game in a high-profile spot, so I’ll count on the great offensive players in this game to pull it over the total.
NCAA Basketball – Citadel/Mercer Under 159 (-110): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+
In a season full of crazy inconsistencies, I really didn’t expect one of the most reliable constants to be Citadel hitting unders of all things. And this total is far too high against a Mercer team also perceived as high-scoring and weak defensively.
Interestingly, this trend of unders for Citadel actually started in their first matchup against Mercer, an 83-63 loss for the Bulldogs that began a 9-1 run to the under where only one game has gone over this total. Mercer has been on a similar streak, with only two of their nine games since that first matchup going over this total, one of which was due to double overtime.
These trends are just too stable to ignore, yet odds makers keep hanging totals that reflect the ingrained perceptions of these teams. I’ll continue to take advantage here as I see this game being played in the 70s for a fairly comfortable under.
NBA – Washington Wizards +7 @ Lakers (-110): 9:00 PM CT on NBA TV
The Los Angeles Lakers are not the same team without Anthony Davis in the lineup and it has showed lately. Although they’ve handled business against bad teams in Davis’ absence, they’ve struggled in a big way against the better ones, with their most recent loss coming to the Miami Heat in a game they were unable to break 100 in.
As for the Washington Wizards, Bradley Beal and Russell Westbrook are starting to gel a little bit together. If Russell concedes this offense to Beal and plays like he did last night, this team can make a playoff push in the Eastern Conference. I don’t love the rest of their roster but when you have Beal playing the way he is, anything is possible.
Monitor the status report on this game as the Wizards are on the second leg of a back-to-back, but if Beal and Russ are a go, I trust them to be able to cover seven points against a short-handed Laker squad.
Degenerates
No Degenerates Today.
Tiny Nick is 165-102 ATS (+58.4 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
