Locks
NCAA Basketball – Citadel/Furman Under 160 (-110): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+
Wow, can someone maybe stage an intervention with the bookmakers who keep lining Citadel totals this high?
Wait until after we cash the ticket, but seriously this is getting crazy. We hit the under in their Monday game against Mercer where we pointed out the strong under trend for both teams after they played the first time this season. It’s eerily similar here, as the game these teams played in January was the last time a Furman game saw this many points, leading to an 8-2 run to the under for the Paladins.
The offense for Citadel just isn’t clicking and their pace can’t make up for it, so that should continue against a Furman team who hasn’t allowed an opponent to score over 75 points in ten straight games. Stick with the strong trends here and take the under.
NBA – Bulls/Wolves Over 227 (110): 7:00 PM CT on Fox Sports North
On a night where we got a few unpredictable bad breaks, one thing remained constant: new coach, same horrible defense for the Minnesota Timberwolves.
The Chicago Bulls come into this one averaging just under 115 PPG offensively and 115 PPG allowed defensively. The Wolves are coming off of a game in which they allowed 139 points in, and I don’t see Chicago going under 120 tonight.
I also like the Bulls -4. Minnesota has looked incompetent lately, and I’m sure Zach LaVine will want to show out against his former team. I’m rolling with the over in what should be another tough game for a struggling Wolves team on a back to back.
NBA – Lakers @ Jazz -8 (-110): 9:00 PM CT on ESPN
I’m not necessarily the biggest believer in the Utah Jazz, but what they’re doing right now is unreal. They haven’t had a home game with a margin closer than 12 points since New Year’s Day, and I think this should actually be a double-digit spread.
But we seem to be getting the brand name discount because the Los Angeles Lakers are on the other side. But this wounded version with no Anthony Davis, no Dennis Schroder, and nagging injuries for LeBron James and Kyle Kuzma are not equipped to handle the Jazz juggernaut right now.
This just feels like Utah will want to showcase themselves in a national TV spot against the defending champs. I smell blowout so lay the points here.
NCAA Basketball – Tennessee/Vanderbilt Over 142 (-110): 8:00 PM CT on SEC Network
There looks to be plenty of value on this over due to Tennessee’s perception as an excellent defensive team. That defense has sprung a serious leak recently though, as a Volunteers team allowing 62.7 PPG on the season has allowed 70 or more in five straight, and are allowing 1.024 points per possession in their last three games.
Vanderbilt has discovered some offense behind Scotty Pippen Jr., scoring 70 or more in seven of the last eight, and are on a 7-2-1 over run against this particular total. They still struggle on defense though as the 259th team in defensive efficiency, and I’m expecting a good offensive showing against a Tennessee team hungry for a bounce back after their loss to Kentucky.
The first meeting saw exactly 142 points and the offensive and defensive metrics have only shifted in favor of more scoring since, so take the over here.
Degenerates
NBA – Zach Lavine Over 28.5 Points (-110): 7:00 PM CT on Fox Sports North
Minnesota fans know one thing is always true: When former players face off with them it never ends well.
I expect LaVine to put on a show against his former team today in a game that what should be a high-scoring game. He is currently sixth in the league in scoring, coming in at over 28 PPG.
The Wolves lack rim protection so look for LaVine to not just settle for threes but to be aggressive at the rim as well tonight on his way to a 30-plus point game.
Tiny Nick is 169-104 ATS (+60.2 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
