Locks
NBA – Nuggets/Wizards Over 238 (-110): 8:00 PM CT
When these two teams faced off against one another just over a week ago, that game saw 258 points scored in it. When the Washington Wizards match up with another high-scoring offense it has usually meant points as of late, especially with their newfound offensive success between Russell Westbrook and Bradley Beal.
I’m looking for another big performance out of them as well as another lackluster defense from one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA, the Wizards. As long as the Denver Nuggets doesn’t control this game completely I expect another shootout between two high-powered offenses.
NCAA Basketball – Northwestern @ Minnesota -4.5 (-110): 8:00 PM CT on Big Ten Network
The Gophers have a chance to secure a .500 record in conference play which likely gets them into the NCAA tournament, but if that’s going to happen it has to start tonight. That’s why I’m on them in this spot – they know it’s a must-win and they probably need a statement in the process.
At home against the 2nd worst team in the Big Ten is a good place to start, as Minnesota’s home dominance is well-known. This number being inside five points is key for me, as Northwestern has kept only one of their past eight road games (all losses) inside that number. Minnesota is very capable of doing something typical of Gopher athletics and choke here, but I’ll trust that they understand the stakes and win convincingly.
NCAA Basketball – Belmont/Eastern Kentucky Over 161 (-110): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN+
Whether this is a tight game or a blowout I’m predicting plenty of points.
The first matchup between these teams two weeks ago wasn’t anywhere near a close game as Belmont rolled 92-74, but it did get over the total for that game despite the Bruins being on cruise control for most of the second half. But Belmont tends to play the other decent OVC teams relatively close on the road, and I think the high-powered EKU offense is looking for revenge here.
This Colonels team plays at the 4th fastest pace in the country, leading to their 12-1 recent run to the over. And as we’ve seen, when fast pace meets a team like Belmont who is 3rd in effective field goal rate and 5th in points per possession the games go over the total. Belmont already has the recipe for hanging 90 on EKU, so I think an up-tempo and hotly contested game gets us over the total here.
NCAA Basketball – Mississippi Valley St. @ Prairie View -31 (-110): 6:30 PM CT
I love this Mississippi Valley State team, which is to say I love how hilariously bad they are and can be faded pretty much automatically. If you’ve ever had the pleasure of watching them get steamrolled it’s an amazing display of inept offense and zero defense. Now, fresh off a 37 point loss, they travel to Prairie View who is easily the best team in the SWAC.
The Panthers already took down the Delta Devils in what was maybe the most embarrassing performance of the college basketball season, with MVSU scoring five points in the second half and losing by 46 a month ago. Prairie View covered the 20-point spread in that game, part of the 7-0-1 ATS streak they’re on in conference play. MVSU meanwhile has been catching 20 or more points six times in SWAC play, going 1-5 ATS in those games.
This one is guaranteed to get ugly, so I’m laying the lumber with Prairie View.
Degenerates
NCAA Basketball – SE Missouri St @ Eastern Illinois -5 (-110): 7:30 PM CT on ESPN+
This Eastern Illinois team is finally healthy, and it shows. Most of their top rotation players have missed significant time this season, leading to a lot of ugly performances. But the full lineup has been together the past week, leading to two road wins against two of the better OVC teams, both as significant underdogs.
The market hasn’t quite caught up with the potential for the Panthers, especially given that one of those ugly losses was on the road against this SEMO team. But the Redhawks have really struggled away from home, and against this healthy and revenge-minded EIU team, I think this line is considerably short. I’ve also noticed a reverse line move on this game in early betting action which pushed the number up a point, so sharps know to be on the improving Panthers and you should too.
NCAA Basketball – Boise St. +7 @ San Diego St. (-110): 8:00 PM CT on FS1
This is just a bit too much for San Diego State to be laying here in what should be a very hard-fought game. The Aztecs are finally facing a challenge for the first time in a month after four straight doubleheaders against the bottom half of the conference. SDSU has struggled against the top half of the MWC, going just 3-3 straight up with two of those wins by less than the spread of this game.
The beatdowns they’ve handed out over their last eight games are inflating their value, especially against a team like Boise who can match their defensive prowess. The Broncos are 39th in defensive efficiency, which is well behind the 8th ranked Aztecs but suggests a defensive battle that favors the team catching points. I think the Broncos, fresh off impressive wins over Utah State (who swept SDSU), come into this national TV spot with something to prove, and a rock fight of a game keeps them within the number.
Tiny Nick is 173-105 ATS (+63.1 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
