Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 2/26

Photo Credit: Mark J. Rebilas (USA TODAY Sports)
Locks

NBA – Suns/Bulls Over 226 (-110): 7:00 PM CT NBA League Pass

This matchup features two teams that have been trending towards the over for the past couple of weeks.

The Phoenix Suns have turned up the heat in a big way on offense, and the Chicago Bulls are arising from the depths of the Eastern Conference. The Suns have scored 119, 125, 120, 128, 109, 132, 128, 132, and 121 points in their last nine games, and I don’t expect them to slow down against a mediocre Chicago defense.

The Bulls have cracked 120 points in their last three games so this one should be a shootout.

NCAA Basketball – Richmond/St. Louis Under 144 (-110): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN2

Early in the season I was enjoying cashing over tickets on St. Louis, but things have changed since the Billikens came back from their long COVID pause. In their eight games back, they are 6-2 to the under, with six straight going both under the total and this particular number.

The Billikens have dialed up the defense, now up to 29th in points per possession allowed and 46th in opponent field goal percentage. This is also a high-stakes game for A10 and NCAA tournament implications, so I expect both teams to be working hard on defense, and with Richmond playing at the 165th pace and St Louis the 189th this should be a slower tempo game.

Richmond tends to play at the style of their opponent, and with the Billikens locked in defensively for a hotly contested game, I see this as a few too many points.

Degenerates 

NCAA Basketball – UC Santa Barbara -2 @ UC Riverside (-110): 10:00 PM CT on ESPN2

Finally some national TV love for Big West basketball! This is an underrated conference that always seems to have a team make noise in the NCAA tournament.

That team always comes into the big dance on a serious roll, and that’s what we have with Santa Barbara — they haven’t lost in 2021 and are 9-3 ATS in that stretch. JaQuori McLaughlin is the best player you’ve never heard of and does it all for Santa Barbara. I expect the Oregon State transfer to show out in a national TV spot. Riverside is a decent team that shoots very well from deep but should struggle against the 25th best team in defensive efficiency. The Highlanders also tend to struggle in the first leg games of their doubleheaders, dropping two of those games as home favorites.

I’ve learned over the years that when the best team in the Big West emerges you should ride them into March, so buy low on the Gauchos here.

NCAA Basketball – George Washington +14 @ St. Bonaventure (-110): 5:00 PM CT on ESPN+

This St. Bonaventure team is sneaky good and worthy of an at-large bid in my opinion, but this line is just a little too high.

For one thing, George Washington is far from a pushover, with a 6-3 ATS underdog record. They have never having lost a game by this margin all season, and they are that rare team that comes back from a COVID pause playing well, taking down a good Rhode Island team on Sunday.

As for the Bonnies, they look to be in a classic sandwich spot as they just finished a tough home-and-home with Davidson, and could very well be looking ahead to Monday’s much bigger game with Dayton. And their glacial pace that’s 329th in the country creates low-scoring games that favor double-digit underdogs. This number opened -15 and moved to here despite more tickets on St. Bonaventure, so take the points with the Colonials here.

Tiny Nick is 173-108 ATS (+58.8 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.

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Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 03/26

Photo Credit: Mark J. Rebilas (USA TODAY Sports)

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