Locks
NBA – Wolves @ Wizards -4 (-110): 6:00 PM CT on Fox Sports North
Must I really explain this one? The Minnesota Timberwolves are so bad. This team has completely fallen apart and even when they did find a way to cover a spread in regulation, they still found a way to screw it up.
Now to add insult to injury they will be without another one of their leading scorers, Malik Beasley, who begins serving a 12-game suspension Saturday which might not be the worst thing in the world for a team that looks like they should be tanking. And the Washington Wizards have been playing really good basketball lately.
I took them earlier this week and they paid out so I am going to roll with Bradley Beal and Russell Westbrook to keep it going.
NCAA Basketball – Florida State -2.5 @ North Carolina (-110): 3:00 PM CT on ESPN
This line for these teams looks too easy, and sometimes that means there’s a trap, but I think this one is pretty straightforward. The Seminoles are looking like the class of the ridiculously weird ACC, with nine wins in their last ten games — covers in eight of those — and four straight wins off their COVID pause.
That points to their focus and consistency, as opposed to this UNC team that is anything but. The Heels just don’t match up well with FSU, and even during their best stretch of the season lost to the Seminoles by seven as four-point underdogs. I think this sort of a number reflects an expectation that UNC will bounce back from their awful Marquette loss on Wednesday, but this is the wrong team at the wrong time for them, and I have to go with what feels like an easy Seminoles win.
NCAA Basketball – Marquette/UConn Under 136 (-110): 1:30 PM CT on FOX
After an improbable win at North Carolina on Wednesday, this Marquette team is due for serious regression. I think it will happen most significantly on offense, as they shot seven percentage points above their season average and eclipsed the 80-point mark for the first time since before Christmas.
Against a UConn team that’s 43rd in opponent effective field goal rate Marquette is likely to struggle, and we’ve already seen them have trouble against this Huskies defense in the first matchup, a 65-54 UConn win. This should be a very slow game, the Golden Eagles play at the 235th pace and the Huskies at the 316th pace in the country. That should be what dictates this game, along with low shooting percentages and 3-point volume for both teams that will hold this one under the total.
Degenerates
NCAA Basketball – LSU @ Arkansas -4.5 (-110): 1:00 PM CT on ESPN2
Both of these teams have been playing really well, but I think there’s a lot to like about Arkansas in this spot. The Razorbacks are the hotter of the two hot teams, with eight straight SEC wins and seven straight covers in those games. LSU has won three of their last four in-conference, but they’ve struggled both in road games and when catching points, just 2-4 ATS as a road dog.
Arkansas has handled their business at home, especially against the number with a 9-4-1 ATS record in Bud Walton Arena. I love how Eric Musselman has this team playing, and I think the Hogs get another comfortable win here.
Tiny Nick is 174-109 ATS (+58.7 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
